jellydonut's NFL MEGA POST

[jellydonut25]

My fantasy football research has BEGUN.

In the past, I had gone solely by points with a mental modifier for average draft position, (ie, "Okay, the top 3 QBs are off the board. Even though a QB outscores every other position, the next 5 QBs are basically the same, so no need to rush to get one...especially not when past league history shows I can get a QB in a few rounds") but last year, I changed it up...I did my usual points projection (which really just consists of going to like 2 websites because one of them gives you an average of 5 other sites' projections), but I put an actual NUMBER on the value that each player is worth, based on their projected performance vs. an "average" player at the same position (average being the worst guy who would still be a starter - so 12th QB, 36th WR, etc...except Defense and Kicker, where only a top 2 D gets a positive worth, and only the top K gets positive, because they're so hard to predict and bunched so closely for points)


I won my league, so I'm doing it again this year. Got my QBs, Ds, and Kickers done already. Tight ends tomorrow, and then RBs and WRs will get done throughout the course of the week, leading to our draft on Saturday.

I'm pumped this year. I'm gonna post a smack talk video under a different wrestling persona every week, which will keep me having fun whether my team rules (in which case I can be either a bit cocky or very much a face) or sucks (in which case I can qualify and complain like a heel)

[jellydonut25]

So, I had a draft today for a different league with mostly the same rules as my big money league and figured it'd be a nice tune-up for my big money draft tomorrow, especially since I miraculously wound up with the same pick.
I don't think my draft tomorrow is gonna turn out as brutally awesome for me. I got Le'Veon Bell, Andrew Luck and Calvin Johnson with my top 3 picks. #1 RB in the league (once he's done with his 2-game suspension), #1 QB and a top 5 WR...I think the only one of those 3 players that won't be a first round pick tomorrow is MAYBE Calvin Johnson...and that's a MAYBE.

[jellydonut25]

The Walkin' Dude's (my team name) fantasy football season may be turning around. After starting 1-3, I've now won 3 in a row, and my team seems to be turning a corner. Brees is still stinky poopoo, but Andy Dalton is my true starting QB from here on out. Miami's new HC has realized that maybe he should commit to running with his RB who averages over 5 yards per carry, and Lamar Miller is coming on HOT. Danny Woodhead is PPR gold, and JStew isn't getting TDs, but he's performing SOLIDLY in terms of yards per tote, and he's a decent flex play. Antonio Brown is benefitting from anybody but Vick, and I've got two of the BEST tight ends in Delanie Walker and Tyler Eifert. Brandin Cooks is still mediocre, but (a) MAYBE he's getting more looks? and (b) I'm still holding out hope DeSean Jackson comes back soon and replaces Cooks.

It's time to truly begin my quest for a repeat...and everyone in my league better hope it doesn't happen, because I'll basically declare myself their overlord for all time. I'm already a SUPER annoying league champ (which I've basically copped to all my friends in this league as never knowing if I'll win again, so I gotta maximize it), but if I repeat? Please. I'm gonna be INSUFFERABLE (muahaha).








That said, the season is in SOME ways turning out exactly the way I (and we all) would have thought:
Patriots are good and are undefeated. Bengals are good (I knew they would be), Packers are good, and the teams at the bottom are basically what we expected.

What I didn't expect is some of the HOW of things. I never thought it'd be Andy Dalton carrying the Bengals and not their running back duo (what happened to Jeremy Hill, Bengals fans?). I never, EVER thought Peyton Manning would be the absolute worst starting QB in the league (people may be slow to admit it, but the numbers bear out, and he's TERRIBLE right now). Nor did I think Houston would be a failure of such monumental proportions. I definitely knew they'd take a step backward this year, because it's not every year you're going to have a defensive player have the best season of ANY defensive player over the past 20 years, but this is INSANE. They're ATROCIOUS.

Then there are the legitimate surprises:
Seattle is maybe a little better than their record indicates, but they're a middling team, not one of the elites. Carolina is GOOD...without one of their best players. Detroit is TERRIBLE, and I'm surprised. They were a playoff team, and now they just SUCK. Indy (and specifically Luck) look like poo. They'll win that awful division, but they aren't going back to the AFC title game or redeeming their deflategate loss. The Ravens are poop. I don't know if I thought they'd be GOOD, but THIS bad? BWAAAH?!?!


And the Bills are the Bills and that stinks because they're the Bills. Still. Dammit. We suck.

[mr.negativity]

[mr.negativity]

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[mr.negativity]