the Godzilla box office guessing game.

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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby mr.negativity » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:02 pm

Forbes Jun 11, 2019:
Box Office: Why Dark Phoenix, Godzilla 2 And Star Trek Have Struggled Against Avengers: Endgame, Jurassic World And Star Wars
Scott Mendelson wrote:There’s going to plenty to dissect in the coming weeks in terms of the (mostly) unforced errors that brought down Dark Phoenix. The film did almost everything that you’re not supposed to do in terms of these big franchise films. They failed to distinguish itself from the pack, overspent to “fix” the third act in exchange for (at best) a marginally superior theatrical cut, went small and grounded rather than embracing the fantasy of the source material and focused on the wrong characters. The whole “Let’s remake one of the most-watched-but-least-loved-installments,” well, that’s a new one. Even Star Trek into Darkness was riffing on a Star Trek movie (The Wrath of Khan) that people liked.

The other issue is one it shares with the most recent chapters of Godzilla and Star Trek. Both franchises found themselves confronting the return of the super-duper franchises they were somewhat aping and thus found themselves lower on the totem pole. While Star Trek was the closest thing we had to new Star Wars movies in 2009 and 2013, the franchise became irrelevant once we started getting actual new Star Wars movies. And to the extent that American Godzilla movies have attempted to mimic the success of Jurassic Park, so too did Legendary’s MonsterVerse run headlong into a newly vibrant Jurassic World series.

When J.J. Abrams rebooted Star Trek ten years ago, it was serving two purposes. First, obviously, it was attempting to turn Star Trek into a mega-bucks global blockbuster, complete with a sexy-cool new cast, an $150 million-plus budget, plenty of razzle-dazzle spectacle and the kind of gee-whiz space swashbuckling associated with the Star Wars movie. They were partially filling a void both for audiences who liked the Star Wars prequels and those who were unsatisfied with the George Lucas prequel trilogy.

We eventually got Star Trek Into Darkness in May of 2013. Despite Trekkers calling it the worst thing since The Final Frontier (happy 30th birthday), the J.J. Abrams sequel earned mostly positive reviews and snagged $228 million domestic and $467 million worldwide on a $190 million budget. That wasn’t a huge jump (Star Trek had earned $256 million domestic and $385 million in 2009), but it was a jump and by this point, the MCU was merely a “huge movies with Iron Man and much smaller movies without Iron Man” franchise.

But in 2016, Justin Lin’s well-reviewed Star Trek Beyond crashed, earning just $158 million domestic and $338 million worldwide on a $185 million budget. For now, RIP to the “Nu-Trek” franchise. The proverbial pretender to the rule was ruled unnecessary and irrelevant alongside the likes of The Force Awakens and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

In the mid-90s, Sony saw the success of Steven Spielberg’s Jurassic Park and decided to apply the disaster movie mentality from Independence Day to a newfangled American Godzilla movie. Opening just a year after The Lost World, Roland Emmerich’s critically-slammed Godzilla was dismissed by audiences to the tune of only $138 million domestic and $372 million on a $130 million budget. Conversely, The Lost World earned $229 million domestic and $619 million on an $80 million budget.

Joe Johnston’s Jurassic Park III earned “just” $363 million worldwide in 2001 on a $100 million, essentially ending that franchise for 14 years. But over a decade after Jurassic Park III temporarily ended that franchise, Warner Bros. and Legendary tried again, with superior results. Gareth Edwards’ well-reviewed Godzilla, which traded camp for scale and gee-whiz chaos for end-of-times violence, opened with $93 million in May of 2014, frontloading but taking in $200 million domestic and $529 million worldwide on a $160 million budget.

But a director change (Michael Dougherty for Gareth Edwards) and related variables led to a five-year-delay between installments, during which time we got two hugely successful Jurassic World movies. Godzilla: King of the Monsters has been in theaters for 13 days and is just now over $300 million worldwide, with a likely final total over/under $415 million on a $170 million budget. With Godzilla Vs. Kong still set for next March, all invested parties are currently holding their breath and hoping for either a happy result or successes elsewhere to mitigate the possible losses.

For 19 years, Fox and friends have released 12 X-Men movies, including a Wolverine trilogy and two Deadpool movies. They’ve had two somewhat disconnected continuities that were bridged by Days of Future Past in what turned out to be the biggest team X-Men movie of all ($748 million in 2014). After X-Men: Apocalypse underwhelmed ($544 million worldwide, but with awful reviews and just $155 million in North America), we ended up with Dark Phoenix.

Instead of focusing on the new kids and going, well, higher, faster, farther into the realms of superhero fantasy, Simon Kinberg went in the opposite direction, retelling part of The Last Stand with a Jean Grey we barely knew and again focusing on the struggle between Xavier and Magneto. Terrible reviews led to an awful $33 million domestic debut, with all signs pointing toward a global cume under $300 million on a $200 million budget. If X-Men wasn’t heading for an MCU reboot before, it certainly is now.

Yes, Disney’s purchase of Fox didn’t help. Nor did the (correct) choice by Fox and Disney to prioritize a potential new franchise (the James Cameron-produced Alita: Battle Angel) over the nearly-dead X-Men saga. But while X-Men began its journey as a groundbreaking comic book superhero franchise, the sub-genre it helped popularize ended up leaving it in the dust.

In a world where Aquaman topped $1 billion worldwide by jumping the shark straight into the kitchen sink, Deadpool openly pissed on its own franchise and Avengers: Infinity War took its heroes into space to fight a guy who throws moons, the world didn’t need the “gritty, real-world grounded” X-Men franchise anymore. We’ve seen it before.

In 2017, Sony’s Alien-wannabe Life ran headfirst into Alien: Covenant, while Vin Diesel’s attempts to remake xXx into another Fast and Furious franchise couldn’t comparatively compete with Fate of the Furious. Once Walt Disney brought Star Wars back to theaters in 2015, right between Star Trek Into Darkness and Star Trek Beyond, there was zero need for a blockbuster-y Star Trek franchise. For that matter, to the extent that Godzilla was attempting to fill the void left by Jurassic Park, the arrival of two Jurassic World movies (and their combined $3 billion global gross) made the Godzilla sequel comparatively redundant.

In a world with a thriving Jurassic series, there’s less need for Godzilla movies, although movies about big monkeys and giant sharks may still be viable. When J.J. Abrams jumped from Star Trek to Star Wars, he undid the core general audience value in Paramount’s big-budget sci-fi swashbuckler. It’s not a direct comparison, but the fantasy highs and unapologetic super heroics found in the MCU (which steadily increased in scope and scale after The Avengers) and DC Films flicks like Wonder Woman and Aquaman, an X-Men series that still seems scared of its origins only looked that much more passé.

Absent a character audiences cared about, like Hugh Jackman’s Logan, and coming off a poorly-received X-Men: Apocalypse, the X-Men franchise was not just out of date but actively spoiled. In all these cases (give-or-take Return of Xander Cage which did earn $165 million in China and $385 million on an $85 million budget thus meriting an in-development sequel), viable pretenders got relatively crushed once the genuine article came back to take back their thrones. In an era when moviegoers have plenty of at-home entertainment options, they will no longer go to theaters to see Dr. Skipper the Movie when Dr. Pepper is alive and well in the next auditorium over.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:33 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/GMANonScifie ... 0508833792

It's amazing how differently the Japanese box office works, or rather the way the Japanese moviegoer works. Films tend to make their money over the duration of the runs instead of almost all of it clustered there in the opening week, and instead of almost everyone seeing movies during the weekends in Japan more people see movies during the week! Way more people saw Godzilla during a weekday, cumulatively, then they did this weekend.

I totally agree that this is a better way. The best time to see a movie is several weeks into its run during a weekday! I've been saying this for years!
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby XvGojira » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:08 pm

lhb412 wrote:^ Exactly!

I'm thinking maybe Donny Yen for the alien leader and Tony Jaa for the second in command.

:mrgreen:



I vote Donny Yen to play Jet Jaguar. Builds Iron/Ant-man suit to fly around and turn giant and fight monsters. Hell I'd watch that solo movie.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Henry88 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:40 pm

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IX1UjYlsMTw

I cannot get this video to show up properly so I'm leaving the link right here
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby mr.negativity » Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:51 am

Henry88 wrote:
phpBB [media]


I cannot get this video to show up properly so I'm leaving the link right here
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby gyaos » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:32 am

KOTM is even crashing in China and Japan now.

If it isn't an outright flop, all the air is now out of the monsterverse.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:33 pm

I didn't watch that video but yes, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is a box office flop in regard to budget, expectations and staying power. I'm no happier about it than any other fan who wants the Godzilla franchise to thrive but it is what it is.

This is a $170m-budgeted, Hollywood-produced Godzilla sequel that hasn't even matched its predecessor's $93m domestic opening weekend after two weeks of play, with just $85.5m in North America through Thursday. G'14 had topped $162m domestic after two weeks while Kong: Skull Island was at $119m.

Audience interest in G'14 was heavily frontloaded (its domestic total was only 2.15x its opening weekend) while K:SI held up solidly (2.75x). G:KotM's -67.7% second weekend drop was even steeper than G'14's -66.8% and a far cry from K:SI's more normal -54.4%.

North American theaters are typically required to keep playing a new release for two weeks before they're able to stop showing it at their discretion. G'14 opened in 3,952 theaters and lost 451 of them in weekend three, while K:SI started in 3,846 theaters and lost only 180 in its third weekend. As of yesterday, G:KotM went from 4,108 theaters down to 3,207. That's a loss of 901 venues, almost double what G'14 lost, and it has G:KotM playing in fewer locations as of its third weekend than any prior Monsterverse entry even though it opened in the most theaters.

Despite that, there is a sign that the movie's domestic declines might be stabilizing. Its estimated $2,165,000 third Friday is a -48.3% drop from its second Friday, in the same ballpark as K:SI (-49.4%) and much better than the drop from Friday two to Friday three for G'14 (-62%). If it continues to hold up closer to K:SI this weekend, it should be able to bring in more than $8m in its third weekend. Still, that's a small consolation at this point because we're talking about a Hollywood Godzilla tentpole which cost $170m that will be lucky to gross $8m domestic in just its third weekend. Even if its declines are stabilizing, it already opened too low and fell too quickly to have any shot at a face-saving domestic total, as even K:SI legs from this point forward would have G:KotM finishing with less than $120m domestic, a benchmark which G'14 topped on its second Friday and K:SI topped on its third Friday.

G:KotM's international box office performance isn't any less disappointing. China and Japan are the only two countries where it topped G'14's opening weekend. It's playing like K:SI in China, which opened to $71.6m and dropped -67.1% for $23.5m in weekend two. G:KotM opened to $69.8m and dropped -66.3% to a $23.5m second weekend. Maybe it can match K:SI's $168m Chinese total but it seems to be dropping faster this weekend so a total around $135m seems more likely.

Japan is the biggest success story for G:KotM, where it opened 33% higher than G'14 and actually 8% higher than Shin Godzilla. However, while G'14 dropped -33% in its second weekend and Shin Godzilla only dropped a remarkable -13.2%, G:KotM dropped -45% in weekend two. It's on track to finish just above G'14's $29.9m total in Japan, which is fine. Despite reports that Japanese audiences like G:KotM more than prior American Godzilla adaptations, it's certainly not catching fire like Shin Godzilla, which finished north of $79m.

Even a solid $160m combined from Japan and China won't be enough to turn G:KotM into a hit. It's going to crawl past $400m worldwide and it won't get much higher than that. Movies typically need to pull in 2.5x their production budgets worldwide to break even, and in the case of movies like K:SI and G:KotM for which China makes up a heftier portion of their international totals, that multiplier needs to be about 2.7x the budget. K:SI reportedly needed to top $500m worldwide to break even on its $185m budget so G:KotM probably needs around $460m worldwide at a cost of $170m. It's not going to hit that mark.

This doesn't mean that the Godzilla franchise or even this particular Monsterverse series are doomed. We're talking about a Hollywood Godzilla movie featuring Mothra, Rodan and King Ghidorah that's on pace to sell more than $400m in worldwide admissions. Considering what a known quantity Godzilla is and how long Godzilla movies have been around, that level of audience interest in a Hollywood Godzilla production in 2019 is nothing to dismiss. However, that level of audience interest is clearly not widespread enough or growing enough for a potential post-2020 Godzilla sequel to justify another Hollywood tentpole-level budget, because this very expensive Godzilla film is a box office disappointment.
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Re: Godzilla vs Cloverfield?

Postby mr.negativity » Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:35 pm

mr.negativity wrote:VARIETY JUNE 5,2019:
WarnerMedia and Apple Lead J.J. Abrams Mega-Deal Race
Justin Kroll wrote:Though no decision has been made, J.J. Abrams looks to be closing in on a destination for a new mega-deal for his production company Bad Robot that could be valued at nearly half a billion. Sources tell Variety that WarnerMedia is emerging as the frontrunner to land the filmmaker and TV mind behind “Alias” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.” However, Apple is also said to be in strong contention for a deal that could be historic in scope.



THR JUNE 17, 2019:
J.J. Abrams Bidding War Won By WarnerMedia as Bad Robot Nears $500M Partnership
Lesley Goldberg wrote:The sweepstakes to land a massive overall deal with Bad Robot, the famed production company run by J.J. Abrams and his wife and co-CEO Katie McGrath, is nearing the finish line.

Following a months-long courting process that included multiple suitors, WarnerMedia is in final negotiations for a new partnership with Bad Robot, sources say. It's unclear how many years the new agreement is for as the deal that would Abrams with the company he has called home since 2006 has not yet been finalized. Still, sources have estimated that any new pact for Bad Robot could be valued at in the $500 million vicinity when all is said and done. That would put Bad Robot's deal at the top of the recent wave of nine-figure pacts for prolific producers including Greg Berlanti ($400 million from Warner Bros. TV), Ryan Murphy ($300 million from Netflix) and Shonda Rhimes ($100 million from Netflix).

Under the deal, Abrams and company will continue to create and develop new projects for WarnerMedia and supervise other producers across film, TV and digital platforms. Sources say the process of moving Bad Robot's feature film deal over from Viacom-owned Paramount Pictures has already begun.

Representatives for WarnerMedia and Bad Robot declined comment.

The deal arrives after Abrams and Bad Robot were considered the biggest fish in the overall deal waters. Multiple studios and streamers at least kicked the tires or engaged in a hyper-competitive effort to woo Abrams and McGrath on a possible rich pact for the company behind hits including HBO's Westworld and Hulu's Castle Rock, among others. Netflix, Apple, Amazon and fellow media behemoths WarnerMedia, Comcast and Sony Entertainment were among those who, sources say, met or explored a deal with Bad Robot. Sources say Abrams and Bad Robot execs, including head of television Ben Stephenson, took meetings all over town as they considered moving their overall deal from Warner Bros. TV, where the company behind Fringe has been based since 2006. While outlets including Apple and Sony came close, sources stress WarnerMedia emerged on top at least a month ago when it became apparent that Bad Robot prioritized being part of a larger company with TV and film distribution — including WarnerMedia's forthcoming SVOD service.

WarnerMedia, now under the leadership of CEO John Stankey, is among the companies who pulled out all the stops in a bid to keep Abrams in-house. According to multiple sources, one big consideration weighing on Stankey was a desire to keep his prized producer within the company fold. Sources say McGrath — who is also a founding member of Time's Up — conveyed to Stankey in no uncertain terms that Warner Bros. CEO Kevin Tsujihara's continued presence was a "values" issue as she and Abrams explored their company's options. Tsujihara stepped down March 18 following THR's publication of texts revealing that the executive had engaged in an affair with British actress Charlotte Kirk and then attempted to help her land roles in Warners television shows and movies.

Further complicating the bidding process was the ongoing war between the Writers Guild and agencies over packaging fees and affiliated studios, with Abrams and Bad Robot having stopped working with representatives at CAA in all areas — save for directing. With CAA no longer leading the charge, the process had slowed considerably in the past couple months. With CAA out of the picture, sources say Abrams continued to meet with Warner Bros. TV Group president Peter Roth and Stankey, with whom he has had an ongoing relationship.

Abrams, who is currently editing Star Wars: Episode IX for Disney, was among the top producers in Warners' TV fold at a time when brand-name showrunners are in increasingly high demand. Warners, Comcast and Disney are planning streaming services in a bid to compete with Netflix, Amazon and Apple, with the latter entering the originals business last year. Netflix helped explode the market for proven hit-makers when it signed Rhimes and, later, Murphy to nine-figure overall deals, prompting both producers to exit their longtime homes at ABC Studios and 20th Century Fox Television. Between the ramp-up for content produced in-house for those forthcoming streaming platforms and the feud between writers and agents, demand for top writers and producers has further elevated these already eye-popping mega-deals for top creators.

On the TV side, Abrams is prepping an HBO drama, Lovecraft Country (with Jordan Peele), and also executive produces Castle Rock and Westworld alongside showrunners Lisa Joy and Jonah Nolan. (The latter duo exited their longtime home at Warners for a lucrative five-year, $150 million deal with Amazon Studios.) Abrams also is working on Demimonde, the first series he has written and created since Alias. The genre drama landed at HBO following a multiple-outlet bidding war, with the premium cabler also landing the hot script They Both Die at the End from Abrams and The Other Two breakout Chris Kelly. Abrams and Bad Robot also have three shows in the works at Apple: Stephen King adaptation Lisey's Story, starring Julianne Moore; Sara Bareilles' Little Voice; and the Jennifer Garner vehicle My Glory Was I Had Such Friends. All three were picked up straight to series amid competition from multiple outlets.

All of those projects are produced by Warner Bros. TV, which last year extended mega-producer Berlanti with an overall deal said to be worth $400 million. Berlanti presently holds the TV record for the most scripted originals currently airing (18).

With WarnerMedia expected to unveil its direct-to-consumer subscription platform in the fourth quarter (in beta), keeping Abrams in the fold was considered a high priority for the independent studio. Following the departure of Joy and Nolan to Amazon, re-upping Bad Robot was increasingly important to the studio, which continues to aggressively pursue top talent. The studio recently signed Mindy Kailing and Ava DuVernay to rich overall deals. For its part, Warners recently promoted Susan Rovner and Brett Paul to presidents of the TV studio as they take over day-to-day oversight of the unit from longtime exec Roth. Roth, who remains under contract through 2020, will continue to serve on the Warner Bros. interim leadership team alongside Toby Emmerich and Kim Williams during the studio's search for an exec to replace the ousted Tsujihara. Next up for the studio will be inking mega-producer Chuck Lorre (Big Bang Theory, Young Sheldon, Mom, The Kominsky Method) to a new pact as his overall with WBTV expires in June 2020.

Bad Robot is repped by Jackoway Austen Tyerman.



Deadline June 17, 2019:
WarnerMedia Closing In On JJ Abrams Megadeal
Mike Fleming Jr & Nellie Andreeva wrote:On the film side, Abrams is coming from an expensive overall deal at Paramount that paid off with the launch of the franchise Cloverfield, and the revival of Mission: Impossible and Star Trek. But it proved hard for that studio to have his allegiance as a filmmaker, the place Abrams has turned in some of his best results. He has directed two Star Wars films for Disney while under the Paramount deal, the latest of which, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, debuts December 20 to cap of what indisputably will be a record year for the studio. These overall deals with A-list filmmaker/producers are always tough that way — Universal’s deal with Guillermo del Toro was strained when he signed to write/direct The Hobbit movies, and Steven Spielberg always cut his host studio into co-fi roles in projects he fell in love with at other studios, so it will be interesting to see how Warner Bros chief Toby Emmerich fares in getting him to direct pictures in the studio fold.

Abrams’ has become more a re-fashioner of franchises than a world creator, and it was understand this deal would serve as an opportunity for him to become the latter. While WarnerMedia doesn’t have the theme parks that Disney and Comcast have, Abrams will have full access to strong WarnerMedia platforms that include a fledgling streaming service, and he clearly has the potential to leave a strong mark on the studio in this deal.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Henry88 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:27 pm

The mind boggles at the idea of a JJ Abrams Godzilla movie.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby battrafan » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:24 pm

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?p ... zilla2.htm

Now over $95 million domestic and approaching $250 million internationally, with not all markets reporting up to date.

Should cross $100 million domestic and $250 internationally for over $350 million global.

Where it ends up above that is anyone's guess.
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