the Godzilla box office guessing game.

[mr.negativity]

[lhb412]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GMANonScifie ... 0508833792

It's amazing how differently the Japanese box office works, or rather the way the Japanese moviegoer works. Films tend to make their money over the duration of the runs instead of almost all of it clustered there in the opening week, and instead of almost everyone seeing movies during the weekends in Japan more people see movies during the week! Way more people saw Godzilla during a weekday, cumulatively, then they did this weekend.

I totally agree that this is a better way. The best time to see a movie is several weeks into its run during a weekday! I've been saying this for years!

[XvGojira]

[Henry88]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IX1UjYlsMTw

I cannot get this video to show up properly so I'm leaving the link right here

[mr.negativity]

[gyaos]

KOTM is even crashing in China and Japan now.

If it isn't an outright flop, all the air is now out of the monsterverse.

[Benjamin Haines]

I didn't watch that video but yes, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is a box office flop in regard to budget, expectations and staying power. I'm no happier about it than any other fan who wants the Godzilla franchise to thrive but it is what it is.

This is a $170m-budgeted, Hollywood-produced Godzilla sequel that hasn't even matched its predecessor's $93m domestic opening weekend after two weeks of play, with just $85.5m in North America through Thursday. G'14 had topped $162m domestic after two weeks while Kong: Skull Island was at $119m.

Audience interest in G'14 was heavily frontloaded (its domestic total was only 2.15x its opening weekend) while K:SI held up solidly (2.75x). G:KotM's -67.7% second weekend drop was even steeper than G'14's -66.8% and a far cry from K:SI's more normal -54.4%.

North American theaters are typically required to keep playing a new release for two weeks before they're able to stop showing it at their discretion. G'14 opened in 3,952 theaters and lost 451 of them in weekend three, while K:SI started in 3,846 theaters and lost only 180 in its third weekend. As of yesterday, G:KotM went from 4,108 theaters down to 3,207. That's a loss of 901 venues, almost double what G'14 lost, and it has G:KotM playing in fewer locations as of its third weekend than any prior Monsterverse entry even though it opened in the most theaters.

Despite that, there is a sign that the movie's domestic declines might be stabilizing. Its estimated $2,165,000 third Friday is a -48.3% drop from its second Friday, in the same ballpark as K:SI (-49.4%) and much better than the drop from Friday two to Friday three for G'14 (-62%). If it continues to hold up closer to K:SI this weekend, it should be able to bring in more than $8m in its third weekend. Still, that's a small consolation at this point because we're talking about a Hollywood Godzilla tentpole which cost $170m that will be lucky to gross $8m domestic in just its third weekend. Even if its declines are stabilizing, it already opened too low and fell too quickly to have any shot at a face-saving domestic total, as even K:SI legs from this point forward would have G:KotM finishing with less than $120m domestic, a benchmark which G'14 topped on its second Friday and K:SI topped on its third Friday.

G:KotM's international box office performance isn't any less disappointing. China and Japan are the only two countries where it topped G'14's opening weekend. It's playing like K:SI in China, which opened to $71.6m and dropped -67.1% for $23.5m in weekend two. G:KotM opened to $69.8m and dropped -66.3% to a $23.5m second weekend. Maybe it can match K:SI's $168m Chinese total but it seems to be dropping faster this weekend so a total around $135m seems more likely.

Japan is the biggest success story for G:KotM, where it opened 33% higher than G'14 and actually 8% higher than Shin Godzilla. However, while G'14 dropped -33% in its second weekend and Shin Godzilla only dropped a remarkable -13.2%, G:KotM dropped -45% in weekend two. It's on track to finish just above G'14's $29.9m total in Japan, which is fine. Despite reports that Japanese audiences like G:KotM more than prior American Godzilla adaptations, it's certainly not catching fire like Shin Godzilla, which finished north of $79m.

Even a solid $160m combined from Japan and China won't be enough to turn G:KotM into a hit. It's going to crawl past $400m worldwide and it won't get much higher than that. Movies typically need to pull in 2.5x their production budgets worldwide to break even, and in the case of movies like K:SI and G:KotM for which China makes up a heftier portion of their international totals, that multiplier needs to be about 2.7x the budget. K:SI reportedly needed to top $500m worldwide to break even on its $185m budget so G:KotM probably needs around $460m worldwide at a cost of $170m. It's not going to hit that mark.

This doesn't mean that the Godzilla franchise or even this particular Monsterverse series are doomed. We're talking about a Hollywood Godzilla movie featuring Mothra, Rodan and King Ghidorah that's on pace to sell more than $400m in worldwide admissions. Considering what a known quantity Godzilla is and how long Godzilla movies have been around, that level of audience interest in a Hollywood Godzilla production in 2019 is nothing to dismiss. However, that level of audience interest is clearly not widespread enough or growing enough for a potential post-2020 Godzilla sequel to justify another Hollywood tentpole-level budget, because this very expensive Godzilla film is a box office disappointment.

[mr.negativity]

[Henry88]

The mind boggles at the idea of a JJ Abrams Godzilla movie.

[battrafan]

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?p ... zilla2.htm

Now over $95 million domestic and approaching $250 million internationally, with not all markets reporting up to date.

Should cross $100 million domestic and $250 internationally for over $350 million global.

Where it ends up above that is anyone's guess.

[Dai]

[jellydonut25]

As of tomorrow, theaters near me will no longer be playing this movie.

3 different chains and 4 different theaters nearby are dumping this movie after just three weeks. Interestingly, they're all keeping a screen for John Wick 3, meaning these 4 different businesses find more value in showing an R-rated action movie made almost exclusively for men that's been out for 7 weeks than a PG-13 blockbuster that's made and marketed towards all comers that's only been out for 3 weeks.
However you want to "redefine" success and box office and profits...that's sad.

[angilas]

[lhb412]

[jellydonut25]

[Benjamin Haines]

[jellydonut25]

I'm not nervous about GvK at all. It's made. It'll get released.

Future of the Monsterverse? It never had one beyond GvK anyway. Only if KOTM had been a BILLION DOLLAR SMASH and I knew it would never be that.

[lhb412]

[angilas]

[Benjamin Haines]

[angilas]

^very interesting. I guess I should have realized marketing etc wouldn’t be included in the listed production budget. I think I just remembered the hoopla surrounding Alita’s ww box office numbers with around the same production budget as KoTM and assumed if it did as well it would be a similar success, but I suppose for a live action film releasing in the summer it takes a lot more to promote.
Well I hope GvKong makes enough to encourage future studios to license Kaiju again

[Benjamin Haines]

[Dai]

[lhb412]

[Ultraseven]

Just to let you know: here in Peru the first week of Godzilla was dissapointing to say the least (almost empty theaters at release date), but now almost a month later, i can confirm that every showing of Godzilla since two weeks ago are almost full (sometimes just two or three free seats), i think it got a good WOM. Meanwhile MIB: International is a complete disaster, no seat taken for some showings. Here the people were interested in Aladdin and now in Toy Story 4 but now Godzilla is a sleeper hit I know that my country box office is not too great but still one of the largest in South America (well behind Brazil btw).

Edit: i have to add that G:KOTM had a very few medium to small billboards in the city that were changed the next week, no newspapers ads, absolutely no TV ads (honestly there is not much TV ads for movies except MCU and Star Wars here) and i just heard a single radio add at release date, so i'm glad that a lot of people are still watching it these days. I hope for more Monsterverse movies besides GvK.