the Godzilla box office guessing game.

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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby mr.negativity » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:02 pm

Forbes Jun 11, 2019:
Box Office: Why Dark Phoenix, Godzilla 2 And Star Trek Have Struggled Against Avengers: Endgame, Jurassic World And Star Wars
Scott Mendelson wrote:There’s going to plenty to dissect in the coming weeks in terms of the (mostly) unforced errors that brought down Dark Phoenix. The film did almost everything that you’re not supposed to do in terms of these big franchise films. They failed to distinguish itself from the pack, overspent to “fix” the third act in exchange for (at best) a marginally superior theatrical cut, went small and grounded rather than embracing the fantasy of the source material and focused on the wrong characters. The whole “Let’s remake one of the most-watched-but-least-loved-installments,” well, that’s a new one. Even Star Trek into Darkness was riffing on a Star Trek movie (The Wrath of Khan) that people liked.

The other issue is one it shares with the most recent chapters of Godzilla and Star Trek. Both franchises found themselves confronting the return of the super-duper franchises they were somewhat aping and thus found themselves lower on the totem pole. While Star Trek was the closest thing we had to new Star Wars movies in 2009 and 2013, the franchise became irrelevant once we started getting actual new Star Wars movies. And to the extent that American Godzilla movies have attempted to mimic the success of Jurassic Park, so too did Legendary’s MonsterVerse run headlong into a newly vibrant Jurassic World series.

When J.J. Abrams rebooted Star Trek ten years ago, it was serving two purposes. First, obviously, it was attempting to turn Star Trek into a mega-bucks global blockbuster, complete with a sexy-cool new cast, an $150 million-plus budget, plenty of razzle-dazzle spectacle and the kind of gee-whiz space swashbuckling associated with the Star Wars movie. They were partially filling a void both for audiences who liked the Star Wars prequels and those who were unsatisfied with the George Lucas prequel trilogy.

We eventually got Star Trek Into Darkness in May of 2013. Despite Trekkers calling it the worst thing since The Final Frontier (happy 30th birthday), the J.J. Abrams sequel earned mostly positive reviews and snagged $228 million domestic and $467 million worldwide on a $190 million budget. That wasn’t a huge jump (Star Trek had earned $256 million domestic and $385 million in 2009), but it was a jump and by this point, the MCU was merely a “huge movies with Iron Man and much smaller movies without Iron Man” franchise.

But in 2016, Justin Lin’s well-reviewed Star Trek Beyond crashed, earning just $158 million domestic and $338 million worldwide on a $185 million budget. For now, RIP to the “Nu-Trek” franchise. The proverbial pretender to the rule was ruled unnecessary and irrelevant alongside the likes of The Force Awakens and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

In the mid-90s, Sony saw the success of Steven Spielberg’s Jurassic Park and decided to apply the disaster movie mentality from Independence Day to a newfangled American Godzilla movie. Opening just a year after The Lost World, Roland Emmerich’s critically-slammed Godzilla was dismissed by audiences to the tune of only $138 million domestic and $372 million on a $130 million budget. Conversely, The Lost World earned $229 million domestic and $619 million on an $80 million budget.

Joe Johnston’s Jurassic Park III earned “just” $363 million worldwide in 2001 on a $100 million, essentially ending that franchise for 14 years. But over a decade after Jurassic Park III temporarily ended that franchise, Warner Bros. and Legendary tried again, with superior results. Gareth Edwards’ well-reviewed Godzilla, which traded camp for scale and gee-whiz chaos for end-of-times violence, opened with $93 million in May of 2014, frontloading but taking in $200 million domestic and $529 million worldwide on a $160 million budget.

But a director change (Michael Dougherty for Gareth Edwards) and related variables led to a five-year-delay between installments, during which time we got two hugely successful Jurassic World movies. Godzilla: King of the Monsters has been in theaters for 13 days and is just now over $300 million worldwide, with a likely final total over/under $415 million on a $170 million budget. With Godzilla Vs. Kong still set for next March, all invested parties are currently holding their breath and hoping for either a happy result or successes elsewhere to mitigate the possible losses.

For 19 years, Fox and friends have released 12 X-Men movies, including a Wolverine trilogy and two Deadpool movies. They’ve had two somewhat disconnected continuities that were bridged by Days of Future Past in what turned out to be the biggest team X-Men movie of all ($748 million in 2014). After X-Men: Apocalypse underwhelmed ($544 million worldwide, but with awful reviews and just $155 million in North America), we ended up with Dark Phoenix.

Instead of focusing on the new kids and going, well, higher, faster, farther into the realms of superhero fantasy, Simon Kinberg went in the opposite direction, retelling part of The Last Stand with a Jean Grey we barely knew and again focusing on the struggle between Xavier and Magneto. Terrible reviews led to an awful $33 million domestic debut, with all signs pointing toward a global cume under $300 million on a $200 million budget. If X-Men wasn’t heading for an MCU reboot before, it certainly is now.

Yes, Disney’s purchase of Fox didn’t help. Nor did the (correct) choice by Fox and Disney to prioritize a potential new franchise (the James Cameron-produced Alita: Battle Angel) over the nearly-dead X-Men saga. But while X-Men began its journey as a groundbreaking comic book superhero franchise, the sub-genre it helped popularize ended up leaving it in the dust.

In a world where Aquaman topped $1 billion worldwide by jumping the shark straight into the kitchen sink, Deadpool openly pissed on its own franchise and Avengers: Infinity War took its heroes into space to fight a guy who throws moons, the world didn’t need the “gritty, real-world grounded” X-Men franchise anymore. We’ve seen it before.

In 2017, Sony’s Alien-wannabe Life ran headfirst into Alien: Covenant, while Vin Diesel’s attempts to remake xXx into another Fast and Furious franchise couldn’t comparatively compete with Fate of the Furious. Once Walt Disney brought Star Wars back to theaters in 2015, right between Star Trek Into Darkness and Star Trek Beyond, there was zero need for a blockbuster-y Star Trek franchise. For that matter, to the extent that Godzilla was attempting to fill the void left by Jurassic Park, the arrival of two Jurassic World movies (and their combined $3 billion global gross) made the Godzilla sequel comparatively redundant.

In a world with a thriving Jurassic series, there’s less need for Godzilla movies, although movies about big monkeys and giant sharks may still be viable. When J.J. Abrams jumped from Star Trek to Star Wars, he undid the core general audience value in Paramount’s big-budget sci-fi swashbuckler. It’s not a direct comparison, but the fantasy highs and unapologetic super heroics found in the MCU (which steadily increased in scope and scale after The Avengers) and DC Films flicks like Wonder Woman and Aquaman, an X-Men series that still seems scared of its origins only looked that much more passé.

Absent a character audiences cared about, like Hugh Jackman’s Logan, and coming off a poorly-received X-Men: Apocalypse, the X-Men franchise was not just out of date but actively spoiled. In all these cases (give-or-take Return of Xander Cage which did earn $165 million in China and $385 million on an $85 million budget thus meriting an in-development sequel), viable pretenders got relatively crushed once the genuine article came back to take back their thrones. In an era when moviegoers have plenty of at-home entertainment options, they will no longer go to theaters to see Dr. Skipper the Movie when Dr. Pepper is alive and well in the next auditorium over.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:33 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/GMANonScifie ... 0508833792

It's amazing how differently the Japanese box office works, or rather the way the Japanese moviegoer works. Films tend to make their money over the duration of the runs instead of almost all of it clustered there in the opening week, and instead of almost everyone seeing movies during the weekends in Japan more people see movies during the week! Way more people saw Godzilla during a weekday, cumulatively, then they did this weekend.

I totally agree that this is a better way. The best time to see a movie is several weeks into its run during a weekday! I've been saying this for years!
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby XvGojira » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:08 pm

lhb412 wrote:^ Exactly!

I'm thinking maybe Donny Yen for the alien leader and Tony Jaa for the second in command.

:mrgreen:



I vote Donny Yen to play Jet Jaguar. Builds Iron/Ant-man suit to fly around and turn giant and fight monsters. Hell I'd watch that solo movie.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Henry88 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:40 pm

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IX1UjYlsMTw

I cannot get this video to show up properly so I'm leaving the link right here
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby mr.negativity » Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:51 am

Henry88 wrote:
phpBB [media]


I cannot get this video to show up properly so I'm leaving the link right here
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby gyaos » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:32 am

KOTM is even crashing in China and Japan now.

If it isn't an outright flop, all the air is now out of the monsterverse.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:33 pm

I didn't watch that video but yes, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is a box office flop in regard to budget, expectations and staying power. I'm no happier about it than any other fan who wants the Godzilla franchise to thrive but it is what it is.

This is a $170m-budgeted, Hollywood-produced Godzilla sequel that hasn't even matched its predecessor's $93m domestic opening weekend after two weeks of play, with just $85.5m in North America through Thursday. G'14 had topped $162m domestic after two weeks while Kong: Skull Island was at $119m.

Audience interest in G'14 was heavily frontloaded (its domestic total was only 2.15x its opening weekend) while K:SI held up solidly (2.75x). G:KotM's -67.7% second weekend drop was even steeper than G'14's -66.8% and a far cry from K:SI's more normal -54.4%.

North American theaters are typically required to keep playing a new release for two weeks before they're able to stop showing it at their discretion. G'14 opened in 3,952 theaters and lost 451 of them in weekend three, while K:SI started in 3,846 theaters and lost only 180 in its third weekend. As of yesterday, G:KotM went from 4,108 theaters down to 3,207. That's a loss of 901 venues, almost double what G'14 lost, and it has G:KotM playing in fewer locations as of its third weekend than any prior Monsterverse entry even though it opened in the most theaters.

Despite that, there is a sign that the movie's domestic declines might be stabilizing. Its estimated $2,165,000 third Friday is a -48.3% drop from its second Friday, in the same ballpark as K:SI (-49.4%) and much better than the drop from Friday two to Friday three for G'14 (-62%). If it continues to hold up closer to K:SI this weekend, it should be able to bring in more than $8m in its third weekend. Still, that's a small consolation at this point because we're talking about a Hollywood Godzilla tentpole which cost $170m that will be lucky to gross $8m domestic in just its third weekend. Even if its declines are stabilizing, it already opened too low and fell too quickly to have any shot at a face-saving domestic total, as even K:SI legs from this point forward would have G:KotM finishing with less than $120m domestic, a benchmark which G'14 topped on its second Friday and K:SI topped on its third Friday.

G:KotM's international box office performance isn't any less disappointing. China and Japan are the only two countries where it topped G'14's opening weekend. It's playing like K:SI in China, which opened to $71.6m and dropped -67.1% for $23.5m in weekend two. G:KotM opened to $69.8m and dropped -66.3% to a $23.5m second weekend. Maybe it can match K:SI's $168m Chinese total but it seems to be dropping faster this weekend so a total around $135m seems more likely.

Japan is the biggest success story for G:KotM, where it opened 33% higher than G'14 and actually 8% higher than Shin Godzilla. However, while G'14 dropped -33% in its second weekend and Shin Godzilla only dropped a remarkable -13.2%, G:KotM dropped -45% in weekend two. It's on track to finish just above G'14's $29.9m total in Japan, which is fine. Despite reports that Japanese audiences like G:KotM more than prior American Godzilla adaptations, it's certainly not catching fire like Shin Godzilla, which finished north of $79m.

Even a solid $160m combined from Japan and China won't be enough to turn G:KotM into a hit. It's going to crawl past $400m worldwide and it won't get much higher than that. Movies typically need to pull in 2.5x their production budgets worldwide to break even, and in the case of movies like K:SI and G:KotM for which China makes up a heftier portion of their international totals, that multiplier needs to be about 2.7x the budget. K:SI reportedly needed to top $500m worldwide to break even on its $185m budget so G:KotM probably needs around $460m worldwide at a cost of $170m. It's not going to hit that mark.

This doesn't mean that the Godzilla franchise or even this particular Monsterverse series are doomed. We're talking about a Hollywood Godzilla movie featuring Mothra, Rodan and King Ghidorah that's on pace to sell more than $400m in worldwide admissions. Considering what a known quantity Godzilla is and how long Godzilla movies have been around, that level of audience interest in a Hollywood Godzilla production in 2019 is nothing to dismiss. However, that level of audience interest is clearly not widespread enough or growing enough for a potential post-2020 Godzilla sequel to justify another Hollywood tentpole-level budget, because this very expensive Godzilla film is a box office disappointment.
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Re: Godzilla vs Cloverfield?

Postby mr.negativity » Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:35 pm

mr.negativity wrote:VARIETY JUNE 5,2019:
WarnerMedia and Apple Lead J.J. Abrams Mega-Deal Race
Justin Kroll wrote:Though no decision has been made, J.J. Abrams looks to be closing in on a destination for a new mega-deal for his production company Bad Robot that could be valued at nearly half a billion. Sources tell Variety that WarnerMedia is emerging as the frontrunner to land the filmmaker and TV mind behind “Alias” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.” However, Apple is also said to be in strong contention for a deal that could be historic in scope.



THR JUNE 17, 2019:
J.J. Abrams Bidding War Won By WarnerMedia as Bad Robot Nears $500M Partnership
Lesley Goldberg wrote:The sweepstakes to land a massive overall deal with Bad Robot, the famed production company run by J.J. Abrams and his wife and co-CEO Katie McGrath, is nearing the finish line.

Following a months-long courting process that included multiple suitors, WarnerMedia is in final negotiations for a new partnership with Bad Robot, sources say. It's unclear how many years the new agreement is for as the deal that would Abrams with the company he has called home since 2006 has not yet been finalized. Still, sources have estimated that any new pact for Bad Robot could be valued at in the $500 million vicinity when all is said and done. That would put Bad Robot's deal at the top of the recent wave of nine-figure pacts for prolific producers including Greg Berlanti ($400 million from Warner Bros. TV), Ryan Murphy ($300 million from Netflix) and Shonda Rhimes ($100 million from Netflix).

Under the deal, Abrams and company will continue to create and develop new projects for WarnerMedia and supervise other producers across film, TV and digital platforms. Sources say the process of moving Bad Robot's feature film deal over from Viacom-owned Paramount Pictures has already begun.

Representatives for WarnerMedia and Bad Robot declined comment.

The deal arrives after Abrams and Bad Robot were considered the biggest fish in the overall deal waters. Multiple studios and streamers at least kicked the tires or engaged in a hyper-competitive effort to woo Abrams and McGrath on a possible rich pact for the company behind hits including HBO's Westworld and Hulu's Castle Rock, among others. Netflix, Apple, Amazon and fellow media behemoths WarnerMedia, Comcast and Sony Entertainment were among those who, sources say, met or explored a deal with Bad Robot. Sources say Abrams and Bad Robot execs, including head of television Ben Stephenson, took meetings all over town as they considered moving their overall deal from Warner Bros. TV, where the company behind Fringe has been based since 2006. While outlets including Apple and Sony came close, sources stress WarnerMedia emerged on top at least a month ago when it became apparent that Bad Robot prioritized being part of a larger company with TV and film distribution — including WarnerMedia's forthcoming SVOD service.

WarnerMedia, now under the leadership of CEO John Stankey, is among the companies who pulled out all the stops in a bid to keep Abrams in-house. According to multiple sources, one big consideration weighing on Stankey was a desire to keep his prized producer within the company fold. Sources say McGrath — who is also a founding member of Time's Up — conveyed to Stankey in no uncertain terms that Warner Bros. CEO Kevin Tsujihara's continued presence was a "values" issue as she and Abrams explored their company's options. Tsujihara stepped down March 18 following THR's publication of texts revealing that the executive had engaged in an affair with British actress Charlotte Kirk and then attempted to help her land roles in Warners television shows and movies.

Further complicating the bidding process was the ongoing war between the Writers Guild and agencies over packaging fees and affiliated studios, with Abrams and Bad Robot having stopped working with representatives at CAA in all areas — save for directing. With CAA no longer leading the charge, the process had slowed considerably in the past couple months. With CAA out of the picture, sources say Abrams continued to meet with Warner Bros. TV Group president Peter Roth and Stankey, with whom he has had an ongoing relationship.

Abrams, who is currently editing Star Wars: Episode IX for Disney, was among the top producers in Warners' TV fold at a time when brand-name showrunners are in increasingly high demand. Warners, Comcast and Disney are planning streaming services in a bid to compete with Netflix, Amazon and Apple, with the latter entering the originals business last year. Netflix helped explode the market for proven hit-makers when it signed Rhimes and, later, Murphy to nine-figure overall deals, prompting both producers to exit their longtime homes at ABC Studios and 20th Century Fox Television. Between the ramp-up for content produced in-house for those forthcoming streaming platforms and the feud between writers and agents, demand for top writers and producers has further elevated these already eye-popping mega-deals for top creators.

On the TV side, Abrams is prepping an HBO drama, Lovecraft Country (with Jordan Peele), and also executive produces Castle Rock and Westworld alongside showrunners Lisa Joy and Jonah Nolan. (The latter duo exited their longtime home at Warners for a lucrative five-year, $150 million deal with Amazon Studios.) Abrams also is working on Demimonde, the first series he has written and created since Alias. The genre drama landed at HBO following a multiple-outlet bidding war, with the premium cabler also landing the hot script They Both Die at the End from Abrams and The Other Two breakout Chris Kelly. Abrams and Bad Robot also have three shows in the works at Apple: Stephen King adaptation Lisey's Story, starring Julianne Moore; Sara Bareilles' Little Voice; and the Jennifer Garner vehicle My Glory Was I Had Such Friends. All three were picked up straight to series amid competition from multiple outlets.

All of those projects are produced by Warner Bros. TV, which last year extended mega-producer Berlanti with an overall deal said to be worth $400 million. Berlanti presently holds the TV record for the most scripted originals currently airing (18).

With WarnerMedia expected to unveil its direct-to-consumer subscription platform in the fourth quarter (in beta), keeping Abrams in the fold was considered a high priority for the independent studio. Following the departure of Joy and Nolan to Amazon, re-upping Bad Robot was increasingly important to the studio, which continues to aggressively pursue top talent. The studio recently signed Mindy Kailing and Ava DuVernay to rich overall deals. For its part, Warners recently promoted Susan Rovner and Brett Paul to presidents of the TV studio as they take over day-to-day oversight of the unit from longtime exec Roth. Roth, who remains under contract through 2020, will continue to serve on the Warner Bros. interim leadership team alongside Toby Emmerich and Kim Williams during the studio's search for an exec to replace the ousted Tsujihara. Next up for the studio will be inking mega-producer Chuck Lorre (Big Bang Theory, Young Sheldon, Mom, The Kominsky Method) to a new pact as his overall with WBTV expires in June 2020.

Bad Robot is repped by Jackoway Austen Tyerman.



Deadline June 17, 2019:
WarnerMedia Closing In On JJ Abrams Megadeal
Mike Fleming Jr & Nellie Andreeva wrote:On the film side, Abrams is coming from an expensive overall deal at Paramount that paid off with the launch of the franchise Cloverfield, and the revival of Mission: Impossible and Star Trek. But it proved hard for that studio to have his allegiance as a filmmaker, the place Abrams has turned in some of his best results. He has directed two Star Wars films for Disney while under the Paramount deal, the latest of which, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, debuts December 20 to cap of what indisputably will be a record year for the studio. These overall deals with A-list filmmaker/producers are always tough that way — Universal’s deal with Guillermo del Toro was strained when he signed to write/direct The Hobbit movies, and Steven Spielberg always cut his host studio into co-fi roles in projects he fell in love with at other studios, so it will be interesting to see how Warner Bros chief Toby Emmerich fares in getting him to direct pictures in the studio fold.

Abrams’ has become more a re-fashioner of franchises than a world creator, and it was understand this deal would serve as an opportunity for him to become the latter. While WarnerMedia doesn’t have the theme parks that Disney and Comcast have, Abrams will have full access to strong WarnerMedia platforms that include a fledgling streaming service, and he clearly has the potential to leave a strong mark on the studio in this deal.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Henry88 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:27 pm

The mind boggles at the idea of a JJ Abrams Godzilla movie.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby battrafan » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:24 pm

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?p ... zilla2.htm

Now over $95 million domestic and approaching $250 million internationally, with not all markets reporting up to date.

Should cross $100 million domestic and $250 internationally for over $350 million global.

Where it ends up above that is anyone's guess.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Dai » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:59 am

Henry88 wrote:The mind boggles at the idea of a JJ Abrams Godzilla movie.


Instead of hiding Godzilla in darkness, he'll be hidden behind lens flares.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby jellydonut25 » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:33 pm

As of tomorrow, theaters near me will no longer be playing this movie.

3 different chains and 4 different theaters nearby are dumping this movie after just three weeks. Interestingly, they're all keeping a screen for John Wick 3, meaning these 4 different businesses find more value in showing an R-rated action movie made almost exclusively for men that's been out for 7 weeks than a PG-13 blockbuster that's made and marketed towards all comers that's only been out for 3 weeks.
However you want to "redefine" success and box office and profits...that's sad.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby angilas » Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:43 pm

jellydonut25 wrote:As of tomorrow, theaters near me will no longer be playing this movie.

3 different chains and 4 different theaters nearby are dumping this movie after just three weeks. Interestingly, they're all keeping a screen for John Wick 3, meaning these 4 different businesses find more value in showing an R-rated action movie made almost exclusively for men that's been out for 7 weeks than a PG-13 blockbuster that's made and marketed towards all comers that's only been out for 3 weeks.
However you want to "redefine" success and box office and profits...that's sad.


They’re pulling it?? Insanity. BOM reports it’s number 5 at the box office as of the most recent date (Wednesday) just above Dark Phoenix which came out last week. Not saying it’s a box office smash but with 400mil+ worldwide a possibility and the film in the top 10WW off a 170M budget its hard to call it an outright flop... BO disappointment sure but it’ll beat Shazam!
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:04 pm

jellydonut25 wrote:As of tomorrow, theaters near me will no longer be playing this movie.

3 different chains and 4 different theaters nearby are dumping this movie after just three weeks. Interestingly, they're all keeping a screen for John Wick 3, meaning these 4 different businesses find more value in showing an R-rated action movie made almost exclusively for men that's been out for 7 weeks than a PG-13 blockbuster that's made and marketed towards all comers that's only been out for 3 weeks.
However you want to "redefine" success and box office and profits...that's sad.


I just checked Fandango and all six of my local theaters still have it through next week, but what's more important here for you is... have you seen John Wick 3? If not, I definitely recommend seeing it in the theater.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby jellydonut25 » Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:14 am

lhb412 wrote:
I just checked Fandango and all six of my local theaters still have it through next week, but what's more important here for you is... have you seen John Wick 3? If not, I definitely recommend seeing it in the theater.

I have. It's fine. I found the middle 20 minutes, or whatever span of time it was that John was on his overseas adventure mostly uninteresting and full of questionable (at best) writing. Chunk that nonsense out and I'd like it considerably more.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:13 pm

angilas wrote:They’re pulling it?? Insanity. BOM reports it’s number 5 at the box office as of the most recent date (Wednesday) just above Dark Phoenix which came out last week.


I know I'm repeating myself here but it really doesn't matter how movies rank on the daily or weekend charts. What matters is how each film performs on its own terms.

Wednesday was the first day that Dark Phoenix ranked below G:KotM but that's just indicative of how rapidly consumer interest in Dark Phoenix is fading. That doesn't make G:KotM's $1,015,069 day-20 Wednesday haul any better, as it portends a day-21 Thursday haul of under $1m.

That means that G:KotM is a $170m-budgeted tentpole that took just three weeks to reach the first day where it sold less than $1m in admissions across North America.


angilas wrote:Not saying it’s a box office smash but with 400mil+ worldwide a possibility and the film in the top 10WW off a 170M budget its hard to call it an outright flop... BO disappointment sure but it’ll beat Shazam!


This year isn't halfway over yet, but regardless, being the #10 movie in the world for the year doesn't mean a thing when the movie costs $170m to produce and struggles to reach just $400m worldwide. That total would be just 2.35x the production budget, and with more than a quarter of that haul coming from China, G:KotM isn't coming close to breaking even in box office revenue, much less turning a profit.

Shazam! topped out at $363m worldwide but that was a great success because the movie only cost $100m. That's 3.6x its budget in box office revenue with less than an eighth of that coming from China, so Shazam! was a profitable endeavor for WB. Plus, for franchise aspirations, audience reception is just as important as profitability. Shazam! got an A rating from opening-day audiences polled by Cinemascore, it dropped a normal -54.3% in its second weekend in North America, and its domestic total is a solid 2.61x its opening weekend. All of that indicates that audiences who saw Shazam! liked it just fine. Conversely, G:KotM polled at a B+ (the same as G'14), it dropped a harsh -67.7% in weekend two, and its domestic total is currently just 2.04x its opening weekend. Even if G:KotM crawls past Shazam!'s $392m worldwide total, when the bean counters at WB look back over their 2019 slate, they'll calculate Shazam! to be a profitable hit and G:KotM a money-losing flop.


jellydonut25 wrote:As of tomorrow, theaters near me will no longer be playing this movie.

3 different chains and 4 different theaters nearby are dumping this movie after just three weeks. Interestingly, they're all keeping a screen for John Wick 3, meaning these 4 different businesses find more value in showing an R-rated action movie made almost exclusively for men that's been out for 7 weeks than a PG-13 blockbuster that's made and marketed towards all comers that's only been out for 3 weeks.
However you want to "redefine" success and box office and profits...that's sad.


It is sad. The only theater in my little town stopped playing G:KotM after just two weeks but it's still playing Aladdin through this weekend.

John Wick 3 is a perfect example of how a film's success or failure is defined on its own terms, not by how it compares to its competition. John Wick 3 is currently at $278m worldwide, a lot less than G:KotM but already profitable because it only cost $75m to produce. When it tops $300m worldwide, it will have quadrupled its budget just in box office revenue.

The growth in consumer interest for the John Wick franchise is also shockingly strong and very rare for any film franchise, especially nowadays. The first John Wick made $43m domestic toward $88m worldwide, John Wick 2 did $92m domestic toward $171m worldwide, and now John Wick 3 is currently at $151m domestic with $278m worldwide and counting.

Profitability and audience interest are why Lionsgate announced John Wick 4 right after the third flick's opening weekend, and they're why G:KotM's performance has us all anxious about Godzilla vs. Kong and the future of the Monsterverse.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby jellydonut25 » Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:46 pm

I'm not nervous about GvK at all. It's made. It'll get released.

Future of the Monsterverse? It never had one beyond GvK anyway. Only if KOTM had been a BILLION DOLLAR SMASH and I knew it would never be that.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:01 pm

jellydonut25 wrote:I have. It's fine. I found the middle 20 minutes, or whatever span of time it was that John was on his overseas adventure mostly uninteresting and full of questionable (at best) writing. Chunk that nonsense out and I'd like it considerably more.


The John Wick films are interesting in that they have already become one of those film series where I don't think that there is one perfect installment, but you assemble your favorite things from each one to assemble the perfect John Wick movie in your own head? Does that make sense? Anyway, Mark Dacascos is maybe my favorite character from these movies so far.

Anyway, back to the franchise at hand. What I wouldn't give for Warner Brothers / Legendary to give a 50 million budget to some out-there auteur to make a modestly budgeted Godzilla movie
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby angilas » Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:22 am

Benjamin Haines wrote:
angilas wrote:They’re pulling it?? Insanity. BOM reports it’s number 5 at the box office as of the most recent date (Wednesday) just above Dark Phoenix which came out last week.


I know I'm repeating myself here but it really doesn't matter how movies rank on the daily or weekend charts. What matters is how each film performs on its own terms.

Wednesday was the first day that Dark Phoenix ranked below G:KotM but that's just indicative of how rapidly consumer interest in Dark Phoenix is fading. That doesn't make G:KotM's $1,015,069 day-20 Wednesday haul any better, as it portends a day-21 Thursday haul of under $1m.

That means that G:KotM is a $170m-budgeted tentpole that took just three weeks to reach the first day where it sold less than $1m in admissions across North America.


angilas wrote:Not saying it’s a box office smash but with 400mil+ worldwide a possibility and the film in the top 10WW off a 170M budget its hard to call it an outright flop... BO disappointment sure but it’ll beat Shazam!


This year isn't halfway over yet, but regardless, being the #10 movie in the world for the year doesn't mean a thing when the movie costs $170m to produce and struggles to reach just $400m worldwide. That total would be just 2.35x the production budget, and with more than a quarter of that haul coming from China, G:KotM isn't coming close to breaking even in box office revenue, much less turning a profit.

Shazam! topped out at $363m worldwide but that was a great success because the movie only cost $100m. That's 3.6x its budget in box office revenue with less than an eighth of that coming from China, so Shazam! was a profitable endeavor for WB. Plus, for franchise aspirations, audience reception is just as important as profitability. Shazam! got an A rating from opening-day audiences polled by Cinemascore, it dropped a normal -54.3% in its second weekend in North America, and its domestic total is a solid 2.61x its opening weekend. All of that indicates that audiences who saw Shazam! liked it just fine. Conversely, G:KotM polled at a B+ (the same as G'14), it dropped a harsh -67.7% in weekend two, and its domestic total is currently just 2.04x its opening weekend. Even if G:KotM crawls past Shazam!'s $392m worldwide total, when the bean counters at WB look back over their 2019 slate, they'll calculate Shazam! to be a profitable hit and G:KotM a money-losing flop.



Thanks for taking the time to explain. So if I understand a $10M film that generates $30M profit will be considered more of a success than a $100M film that generates $250M profit? Makes sense when I consider stocks and investment. That being said I see shazam! At 363M ww off 100M budget with KoTM at approaching $400M with a 170M budget. KOTM will certainly gross more but the profit will almost certainly be lower with the multiplier definitely being lower as you said. For a sequel I don’t think it did too shabby but I guess to the bean counters as you said it’s approaching flop territory. That stinks...
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:04 am

According to Box Office Mojo, Godzilla: King of the Monsters lost 839 theaters going into its fourth weekend and is now playing at just 2,368 locations across North America. For comparison, Godzilla and Kong: Skull Island were both still playing in over 3,100 theaters in their respective fourth weeks.

G'14 crossed $100m domestic on its first Monday right after opening weekend, while K:SI hit the milestone on its second Saturday. G:KotM is finally topping $100m domestic today, its fourth Saturday.


angilas wrote:Thanks for taking the time to explain. So if I understand a $10M film that generates $30M worldwide box office will be considered more of a success than a $100M film that generates $250M worldwide box office? Makes sense when I consider stocks and investment.


Yep yep. (I replaced “profit” with “worldwide box office” because I think that’s what you’re referring to.)

There are additional expenses beyond a film’s production budget (like marketing) just as there are additional revenue streams for the studio beyond box office (like home media and merchandising). Generally speaking, the rule of thumb for a film to break even before it reaches post-theatrical is that it needs to gross 2.5x its production budget worldwide, because studios have to split the box office grosses with the theaters that screen the films. Theaters typically have to commit to playing a new wide release for two weeks, during which the studios get a larger share of the grosses, and then the theaters get a larger share in subsequent weeks with the ability to stop showing the flick at their discretion. That’s why today's increasingly frontloaded theatrical moviegoing doesn’t necessarily benefit theaters as much as studios, with mega hits like Avengers: Endgame doing the vast majority of their total business during those first two weeks.

For a movie that costs $10m to produce, $30m in worldwide ticket sales would be 3x its production budget and would turn a nice profit for the investors who made it. A $100m movie that does $250m worldwide would only have grossed 2.5x its budget, maybe enough to break even, give-or-take, but not a profitable investment.


angilas wrote:That being said I see shazam! At 363M ww off 100M budget with KoTM at approaching $400M with a 170M budget. KOTM will certainly gross more but the profit will almost certainly be lower with the multiplier definitely being lower as you said. For a sequel I don’t think it did too shabby but I guess to the bean counters as you said it’s approaching flop territory. That stinks…


G:KotM isn’t going to turn a profit from box office revenue and it's unlikely to break even theatrically. To hit just 2.5x its $170m budget, G:KotM would need to gross $425m worldwide. It’s struggling just to reach $400m and it might even fall short of that mark.

Then there’s the China factor to consider, as Hollywood studios only get back about 25% of the box office revenue from Chinese screenings. When a big-budget tentpole does a particularly huge chunk of its international business in China, it needs to gross even more in total to hit that break-even threshold. A good example is Kong: Skull Island which, according to The Hollywood Reporter, needed to top $500m worldwide to land in the black, or 2.7x its $185m budget. By that measure, G:KotM would need to get around $460m worldwide to break even. That’s just too far out of reach.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby angilas » Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:21 am

^very interesting. I guess I should have realized marketing etc wouldn’t be included in the listed production budget. I think I just remembered the hoopla surrounding Alita’s ww box office numbers with around the same production budget as KoTM and assumed if it did as well it would be a similar success, but I suppose for a live action film releasing in the summer it takes a lot more to promote.
Well I hope GvKong makes enough to encourage future studios to license Kaiju again
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:22 am

angilas wrote:^very interesting. I guess I should have realized marketing etc wouldn’t be included in the listed production budget. I think I just remembered the hoopla surrounding Alita’s ww box office numbers with around the same production budget as KoTM and assumed if it did as well it would be a similar success, but I suppose for a live action film releasing in the summer it takes a lot more to promote.
Well I hope GvKong makes enough to encourage future studios to license Kaiju again


Alita: Battle Angel did better than anyone was expecting. For a new-to-cinema manga adaptation starring an unknown character in a futuristic sci-fi setting, an $85m domestic total toward $404m worldwide is a best-case performance in this era. It certainly did a lot more business than Ghost in the Shell ($40m domestic toward $169m worldwide).

Unfortunately, that best-case $404m worldwide haul is still not enough on its own to justify Alita's $170m production budget. Fox greenlit Alita not so much because they were expecting a profitable new franchise but mainly to placate James Cameron as he prepped their Avatar sequels. There probably won't be an Alita 2 unless Cameron likewise gets Disney to treat it as a down payment for more Avatar.


jellydonut25 wrote:I'm not nervous about GvK at all. It's made. It'll get released.

Future of the Monsterverse? It never had one beyond GvK anyway. Only if KOTM had been a BILLION DOLLAR SMASH and I knew it would never be that.


I'm not nervous about whether Godzilla vs. Kong will get released either but I am anxious about its box office reception. After G'14 opened unexpectedly huge and collapsed fast, and then G:KotM took a very different approach only to open much lower and not hold up any better, I think the evidence is mounting that Godzilla is just a character which can draw a collectively huge amount of audience curiosity for a new Hollywood film adaptation only once in a generation. Even GINO, the very first Hollywood take on Godzilla which scored the biggest opening weekend of 1998, had already done more than half of its total domestic business by the end of its long Memorial Day opening. The concept of Godzilla is just too established, defined and known after 65 years for it to catch on with general audiences as a buzzy new film series.

That might not be the case with Kong, though. Certainly the original 1933 King Kong is deeply ingrained in American pop culture but Kong has never been known as a franchise that saturates the market with countless sequels. Kong has been around for 86 years and there haven't even been ten Kong movies yet. Unlike all three of the Hollywood Godzilla adaptations to date, both the 2005 King Kong remake and Kong: Skull Island were leggy, well-received hits with audiences.

It's possible that the prospect of seeing a big new take on Kong is a generational flash-in-the-pan just like Godzilla. It's possible that Skull Island got lucky due to audience curiosity about Kong and any sequel would see as much of a downturn in interest as G:KotM. However, it's also possible that audiences might genuinely have wanted to see more of Kong in a straight-up sequel to Skull Island. It's uncharted territory because a straightforward Kong continuation like that has never been attempted before, with the 1933 sequel starring Kong's son and the sequel to the 1976 remake not arriving until a decade later. The sequel to Skull Island will be released after just three years but it will also be Legendary's threequel to Godzilla and the follow-up to this year's underseen King of the Monsters. I hope Godzilla vs. Kong can do at least as well as Skull Island but I worry we might be looking at another Justice League situation where the big cinematic universe crossover puts fewer butts in seats than any of its predecessors. It might be that WB and Legendary squandered the chance to have a thriving, ongoing Kong film series by betting on the appeal of a Godzilla crossover.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Dai » Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:51 pm

Benjamin Haines wrote:It's possible that the prospect of seeing a big new take on Kong is a generational flash-in-the-pan just like Godzilla. It's possible that Skull Island got lucky due to audience curiosity about Kong and any sequel would see as much of a downturn in interest as G:KotM. However, it's also possible that audiences might genuinely have wanted to see more of Kong in a straight-up sequel to Skull Island. It's uncharted territory because a straightforward Kong continuation like that has never been attempted before, with the 1933 sequel starring Kong's son and the sequel to the 1976 remake not arriving until a decade later. The sequel to Skull Island will be released after just three years but it will also be Legendary's threequel to Godzilla and the follow-up to this year's underseen King of the Monsters. I hope Godzilla vs. Kong can do at least as well as Skull Island but I worry we might be looking at another Justice League situation where the big cinematic universe crossover puts fewer butts in seats than any of its predecessors. It might be that WB and Legendary squandered the chance to have a thriving, ongoing Kong film series by betting on the appeal of a Godzilla crossover.


Justice League isn't the comparison I'd make for next year's movie. If it was being billed as Destroy All Monsters then I would agree, but we shouldn't underestimate the mainstream appeal of X vs Y for smashing cultural icons together. Audience appetite for more Kong will most likely be the deciding factor, but at the very least I would hope for a stronger opening for GvK compared to KotM, unless the trailers make it look like a complete train wreck. Even waning characters like Freddy vs Jason managed to out-perform any of the movies from either character's series, IIRC, and Batman v Superman was only considered a financial disappointment because of its ridiculous budget and the impossible benchmark of the first Avengers movie's box office.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:01 pm

So, the benefits of Chinese coproduction is that the film gets to play for another month in China, as opposed to the usual four week window for foreign film. It'll eek out a few more dollars there... but I hear there's a big, new film that's killing it at the box office over there called... Spirited Away?

(the Ghibli film's have a big following and have been widely bootlegged there but are just now having official releases and are doing quiet well)

Benjamin Haines wrote:It's possible that the prospect of seeing a big new take on Kong is a generational flash-in-the-pan just like Godzilla. It's possible that Skull Island got lucky due to audience curiosity about Kong and any sequel would see as much of a downturn in interest as G:KotM. However, it's also possible that audiences might genuinely have wanted to see more of Kong in a straight-up sequel to Skull Island. It's uncharted territory because a straightforward Kong continuation like that has never been attempted before, with the 1933 sequel starring Kong's son and the sequel to the 1976 remake not arriving until a decade later. The sequel to Skull Island will be released after just three years but it will also be Legendary's threequel to Godzilla and the follow-up to this year's underseen King of the Monsters. I hope Godzilla vs. Kong can do at least as well as Skull Island but I worry we might be looking at another Justice League situation where the big cinematic universe crossover puts fewer butts in seats than any of its predecessors. It might be that WB and Legendary squandered the chance to have a thriving, ongoing Kong film series by betting on the appeal of a Godzilla crossover.


Have I ever talked about my idea for a Kong film series? It'd be set in the late 1800s/early 1900s and star a young princess from Skull Island who befriends Kong and they end up traveling the world and crossing paths with various Jules Verne and Edgar Rice Burroughs characters.

Of course, kinda dependent on a 25 - 30 foot tall Kong at most.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Ultraseven » Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:33 pm

Just to let you know: here in Peru the first week of Godzilla was dissapointing to say the least (almost empty theaters at release date), but now almost a month later, i can confirm that every showing of Godzilla since two weeks ago are almost full (sometimes just two or three free seats), i think it got a good WOM. Meanwhile MIB: International is a complete disaster, no seat taken for some showings. Here the people were interested in Aladdin and now in Toy Story 4 but now Godzilla is a sleeper hit :D I know that my country box office is not too great but still one of the largest in South America (well behind Brazil btw).

Edit: i have to add that G:KOTM had a very few medium to small billboards in the city that were changed the next week, no newspapers ads, absolutely no TV ads (honestly there is not much TV ads for movies except MCU and Star Wars here) and i just heard a single radio add at release date, so i'm glad that a lot of people are still watching it these days. I hope for more Monsterverse movies besides GvK.
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