the Godzilla box office guessing game.

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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby O.Supreme » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:11 pm

^All good points. In five, ten, or 15 years I'll for sure be enjoying LP's movies more than the single Sony film from 1998. Still i'm not sure about ticket prices. The theater nearest me has fully converted to upscale reserved seating, at $12 a pop for GA. This would mean at least $50 for my family to go to the theater every time, and I have a close friend who does just that, probably closer to $80 after concessions with his 3 boys.

I myself though, found a theater that is about 10 miles away. its a bit more well-worn, but you can see brand new movies there for $5.00 matinee, and $7.50 GA. We just make sure we plan to eat before or after the film, so no concessions. Its pretty much the only way we see a movie now, unless we want to wait 2-3 months and see it at the mall which are $4.00 for tickets, which now with streaming, and home media releases getting shorter and shorter makes less sense.

case in point- captain marvel was made available for digital download just 81 days after its theatrical premiere (or 11 weeks 3 days). It hasn't even hit the mall yet, but probably will next week, at the same time as the DVD release :lol: .
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby battrafan » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:11 pm

Audiences love the movie and are giving it high reviews, let’s hope that gives it legs.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby tbeasley » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:08 pm

I like this writeup -
Clearing up a few KotM issues

Seeing a lot of panic and despondency in the MonsterVerse fandom over KotM’s reviews and box office performance, so I figured it couldn’t hurt to try to look at things with a level head.

First of all, is King of the Monsters a box office bomb? No.

The term ‘box office bomb’ gets thrown around way too often these days, but really it only applies to movies that fail to turn any kind of profit by the end of their theatrical run. A recent example of this is the Hellboy reboot - it had a production budget of $50 million and yet only made $43 million before being pulled from theatres - that’s a bomb. By contrast, KotM cost $170 million to produce and it’s already made that back in 3 days.

Second, is KotM underperforming? Only a little.

The early US domestic projections for KotM were around $50-55 million opening weekend - less than the openings for Godzilla 2014 and Skull Island. People thought this was rather low and as release neared some estimates grew larger, with some predicting as high as $230M worldwide opening weekend. Unfortunately, the movie didn’t exactly soar that high, with takings of $47M domestic and $177M worldwide. It’s below those lower estimates, but not by much.

Is the movie doomed? Way too early to tell.

The reality of moviemaking is that producing a film is only one half of the equation - you have to market it too, and modern blockbusters cost a lot to market. As a rule of thumb, a big summer tentpole has to earn anywhere from 2-3x it’s production budget to turn a profit. This means KotM has to earn something between $340-510 million worldwide to actually make money. Godzilla 2014 made $529M from a $160M budget and Skull Island made $566M from a $180M budget. That means KotM could come in as the lowest earning MonsterVerse movie and still turn a profit, so it’s not a disaster yet.

If KotM flops does that mean the MonsterVerse is dead? Definitely not.

While the hype train for KotM was leaving the station, Godzilla vs Kong was already filming, and by now is into post-production. That movie is definitely coming, and you can bet WB & Legendary will be looking at KotM’s performance when it comes to figuring out GvK’s marketing strategy. Regardless, that movie is coming out next year, and all eyes will be on that film as to whether the MonsterVerse continues.

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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby goji4ever » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:34 pm

secret life of pets and dark phoenix should cannibalize enough box office this weekend to sink KOTM...
the power of word of mouth isnt enough to cancel out social media which thrives more on putting out negative word of mouth..(except for hardcore fan page types)
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:58 pm

Honestly, I wonder how any movie makes money. They cost so much to make it's crazy. When a filmmaker I like makes one of these big movies it almost just makes me nervous!
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby The Shadow » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:10 am

goji4ever wrote:secret life of pets and dark phoenix should cannibalize enough box office this weekend to sink KOTM...
the power of word of mouth isnt enough to cancel out social media which thrives more on putting out negative word of mouth..(except for hardcore fan page types)


It is true that second weekend drop is usually around 50% and two new movies with the same audience pool will be the big dollar draw. However, regular people's reaction to G:KOTM seems to be generally pretty positive though. There a chance that will translate to a smaller yet steady box office draw over G:KOTM's run weekend to weekend.

In the last week or so Rotten Tomatoes changed how their "Audience Score" was tallied so that only 'verified ticket purchasers' scoring counts; which currently means that only people who have bought their tickets through Rotten Tomatoes' owner Fandango get to provide 'Audience Scores'. Even with all those restrictions, the Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score is still high at 86%.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:42 pm

The Shadow wrote:It is true that second weekend drop is usually around 50% and two new movies with the same audience pool will be the big dollar draw. However, regular people's reaction to G:KOTM seems to be generally pretty positive though. There a chance that will translate to a smaller yet steady box office draw over G:KOTM's run weekend to weekend.


Heck, a -50% second-weekend drop is on the strong side for a big-budget tentpole nowadays. Even well-received hits tend to drop around -53% to -58% in this ever more frontloaded era.

On the one hand, the identical B+ audience polling from Cinemascore suggests that G:KotM might have the same weak domestic legs as G'14. On the other hand, Kong: Skull Island also polled at a B+ and it was much leggier than G'14. I think that illustrates just how much more K:SI's domestic legs were driven by kids and families and that will be the demographic that determines whether G:KotM holds up closer to K:SI or G'14.

Either way, G:KotM is unlikely to even reach $150 million at the North American box office. If it has the same 2.15x opening-weekend-to-domestic-total multiplier as G'14, then G:KotM will end up with $102m. If it holds up as well as War for the Planet of the Apes (2.61x), another big-budget sci-fi sequel that underperformed relative to expectations, G:KotM would finish with $124m. Even legs like Kong: Skull Island (2.75x) or Rampage (2.77x) would only get G:KotM to $132m.

It would need legs like The Meg (3.14x) or Ready Player One (3.28x) just to top $150m domestic. G:KotM would need a strong 3.51x multiplier to match the $168m domestic total of Kong: Skull Island.


Zack Metoyer wrote:Conventional wisdom states that a film should triple its budget to make a profit if the majority of ticket sales are overseas, because production companies in the US get so little back from China, etc.

But Legendary is a Chinese company, making Godzilla largely a Chinese production. Doesn't that change the dynamic considerably? Their parent company, Wanda, also owns AMC theaters, don't they?

So maybe this film doesn't have to hit the conventionally expected numbers to turn a profit after all?


According to Deadline, "Legendary East is handling China, where we understand the movie does not have co-pro status so the return is about 25%."

G:KotM opened to $130m internationally compared to a combined $145.3m international debut for G’14 and $160.3m for K:SI. Legs identical to G’14 would bring G:KotM to a $293.6m international total, while K:SI’s staying power would take G:KotM to $323.2m.

Couple that with a $100m-$130m domestic total and it's likely to finish anywhere from $393m to $453m worldwide. The high end of that, if it holds up as well as K:SI around the world, is probably what it needs just to break even.


Moonlight SY-3 wrote:
lhb412 wrote:It's doing well in Japan!

(Which, if you're a long-range forecaster, is the best news)


Yup! I've seen it twice so far, got a few more viewings in me, I think. All my friends, family, and coworkers love it. Doing just fine here in Japan!


That is fantastic!

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p2240173
Godzilla: King of the Monsters roared some life back into the box-office, selling a very impressive 479,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 431 screens. It sold 641,773 admissions since opening on Friday. This debut is a significant 33% higher than its predecessor, and it's even 8% higher than 2016's Shin Godzilla.

I've read a lot of good things about how the film is much more of a "Godzilla" film than Hollywood's previous attempts, from Ifukube's original themes being used in the film to the kaiju designs being truer to their original characters. And Japanese audience scores seem to reflect this news as well, since it's averaging scores of 4/5 (80%) across most domestic movie sites. I still think they'll be some degree of frontloading, but the good reception could very well offset some of the initial demand. I expect it'll finish a bit above the ¥4 billion ($35-40 million) milestone, but let's see if it can go a bit higher.


G:KotM opened much bigger than G'14 in Japan and China, and much lower pretty much everywhere else in the world.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby battrafan » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:43 pm

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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:03 pm

Benjamin Haines wrote:G:KotM opened much bigger than G'14 in Japan and China, and much lower pretty much everywhere else in the world.



Hmmmmm... I wonder what the end result of this could be if Legendary decides to end the Godzilla license with Godzilla vs. Kong. Would Toho attempt a co-production with China? Or at the very least, make movies with the intent of playing in both Japan and China?

I've heard that Tsuburaya now keeps the Chinese audience in mind when making Ultraman media, and I've read something about Ultra merchandise unique to China.
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Re: Godzilla a Bad Robot production?

Postby mr.negativity » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:42 pm

lhb412 wrote:
Benjamin Haines wrote:G:KotM opened much bigger than G'14 in Japan and China, and much lower pretty much everywhere else in the world.



Hmmmmm... I wonder what the end result of this could be if Legendary decides to end the Godzilla license with Godzilla vs. Kong. Would Toho attempt a co-production with China? Or at the very least, make movies with the intent of playing in both Japan and China?

I've heard that Tsuburaya now keeps the Chinese audience in mind when making Ultraman media, and I've read something about Ultra merchandise unique to China.

Maybe J.J. will reboot the series!

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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Zack Metoyer » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:52 pm

Guys, I have bad news.

Mothra vs. Godzilla only made a third of what the previous film took in. The Showa series is cancelled.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:09 pm

^ The only reason people even go to see Godzilla movies is to see the Hamtaro shorts that play before them!
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby O.Supreme » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:19 pm

Zack Metoyer wrote:Guys, I have bad news.

Mothra vs. Godzilla only made a third of what the previous film took in. The Showa series is cancelled.


cant compare how films were made 55 years ago to today, especially since they didn't even get a world wide release often.

lhb412 wrote:The only reason people even go to see Godzilla movies is to see the Hamtaro shorts that play before them!


Weren't those Hamtaro full length animated films? Unfortunately there is probably more truth to that statement then I'd like to believe
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:33 pm

lhb412 wrote:
Benjamin Haines wrote:G:KotM opened much bigger than G'14 in Japan and China, and much lower pretty much everywhere else in the world.



Hmmmmm... I wonder what the end result of this could be if Legendary decides to end the Godzilla license with Godzilla vs. Kong. Would Toho attempt a co-production with China? Or at the very least, make movies with the intent of playing in both Japan and China?

I've heard that Tsuburaya now keeps the Chinese audience in mind when making Ultraman media, and I've read something about Ultra merchandise unique to China.


I can definitely see a Toho/China co-production happening at some point. However, if Godzilla vs. Kong also takes off in China and Japan and it doesn't outright bomb everywhere else, Toho may not be so keen to put an end to the Monsterverse.

Godzilla: King of the Monsters just opened to $177m worldwide. That's not nothing! That's a Godzilla movie featuring King Ghidorah, Mothra and Rodan which just pulled in $177 million in theatrical admissions around the world in its first weekend. The only reason the film faces an uphill battle to turn a profit is because it cost $170m to produce. Lesson learned: unless it's the first Hollywood Godzilla adaptation in a generation, that is way too much money to spend making a Godzilla movie!

Toho wants to expand their co-producing capacity with Hollywood film studios. Godzilla's popularity is apparently growing in Japan and China and there's still a very sizable audience around the world. Toho was reportedly able to produce Shin Godzilla for just $10 million. Imagine what Toho, Legendary and WB could do with, say, a collective $70m budget?

The current Godzilla movie is probably going to top at least $350m at the worldwide box office, which would be a hugely profitable return of 5x its budget if it had cost $70m instead of $170m. Hollywood studios have the capacity to spend a lot more to make a Godzilla movie than Toho can on their own. Maybe the way forward for the Monsterverse is for Toho, Legendary and WB to find that healthy middle ground between a Toho-level budget and a Hollywood tentpole budget so their next Godzilla movie after Godzilla vs. Kong can turn a profit just by topping $200m worldwide. Maybe that means utilizing less CGI and more practical effects techniques.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:10 pm

Shin Godzilla supposedly cost somewhere between $10 million and $15 million, right? And a little over a decade ago The Host had a similar budget. Neither had Hollywood quality CGI, but the digital effects look respectable enough, and I've seen both play like gangbusters with audiences beyond the dyed-in-the-wool monster fan.

That's something I've been thinking of for a while: you get filmmakers clever enough to turn out slick, engaging films on a budget. Basically, what the John Wick movies manage to do. I think the Godzilla series could thrive in that niche for a long time, not having to compete with, say, Marvel movies in their own game.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:21 am

^ Exactly! John Wick 3 cost $75m, about 5x to 7x the budgets of Shin Godzilla or The Host. The right filmmakers could make a very ambitious Godzilla movie with that kind of budget.

WB and Legendary made a noble attempt to turn Godzilla into a franchise that could do enough business to justify Hollywood tentpole budgets with each outing. G:KotM's performance suggests that's not a viable strategy beyond the hiatus-breaking reboot, so maybe that just means that new Godzilla movies need to rely less on pricey CGI from multiple effects companies and more on the ingenuity of practical effects that previously sustained the franchise for 50 years.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:09 am

^ Work smarter, not harder! Exercise the Roger Corman part of your brain a little!

I don't think this strategy is that unrealistic. In fact, it's probably basically Toho's strategy already in the event they press to button to green-light another donestic film. If they want to keep the American Series going... I hate to say this, because we all love physical media, but you know who would totally go for this strategy? Instead of Toho / Legendary / Warner Brothers imagine Toho / Legendary / Netflix.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby O.Supreme » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:24 am

lhb412 wrote: Exercise the Roger Corman part of your brain a little!


ehh......I wouldn't go that far. I do agree, an amazing Godzilla film could probably be made on a more modest budget (50M or so), but we don't want to go anywhere Asylum territory... or make it an easy target for MST/Rifftrax. 8)
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Gwangi » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:36 am

goji4ever wrote:secret life of pets and dark phoenix should cannibalize enough box office this weekend to sink KOTM...


If I were a betting man, I would say that "Secret Life Pets" may come out as the box-office winner this weekend. The "X-Men" franchise has been wildly uneven and with a title of "Dark Phoenix", I wonder if general audiences will even realize that this is an X-Men or comic book movie? Of course (as is the case in many instances), watch my prediction come out totally wrong.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:22 am

O.Supreme wrote:
lhb412 wrote: Exercise the Roger Corman part of your brain a little!


ehh......I wouldn't go that far. I do agree, an amazing Godzilla film could probably be made on a more modest budget (50M or so), but we don't want to go anywhere Asylum territory... or make it an easy target for MST/Rifftrax. 8)


Just a little part of the brain. You don't want to thoroughly Cormanize.

More like when GDT realized he could save a few million on Shape of Water by using the studio space for the TV show he produced during the production hiatus between seasons. That's the kinda canny thinking I admire.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby The Shadow » Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:17 pm

Gwangi wrote:
goji4ever wrote:secret life of pets and dark phoenix should cannibalize enough box office this weekend to sink KOTM...


If I were a betting man, I would say that "Secret Life Pets" may come out as the box-office winner this weekend. The "X-Men" franchise has been wildly uneven and with a title of "Dark Phoenix", I wonder if general audiences will even realize that this is an X-Men or comic book movie? Of course (as is the case in many instances), watch my prediction come out totally wrong.


I'd bet on SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2 as well. DARK PHOENIX has the issue of once again the X-Men movie-makers pulling back and refusing to embrace the fantastic elements from the comics (EG Storm not being able to fly, etc.). With XDP, it's the second time around for Jean Grey and her enhancement by the Phoenix Force and once again the absent fantastical elephant in the room is the Phoenix Force; that might turn off some X-Men fans.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby battrafan » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:01 pm

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?p ... zilla2.htm

Ok, so the film should be close to if not over $200 million worldwide as of now, the foreign numbers haven't been updated in 4 days.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby goji4ever » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:23 pm

Dark Phoenix is getting killed at the reviews...Pets should be expected to win the weekend... it will eat Godzillas young viewership..

Talks about a combined Godzilla project sounds great in theory... can I finally get my Kaneko-verse Godzilla and Gamera crossover film?
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Henry88 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:19 am

I think a co-production between legendary and toho wood be a great idea it could be just like the old days between them and AIP.
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Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Outkaster » Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:12 am

The problem is the bar has been raised to high. Hollywood thinks Godzilla should make Marvel type movie money. It isn't realistic. Godzilla may be a household name but not a billion dollar franchise like the Avengers or something.
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