the Godzilla box office guessing game.

This is the place to discuss Legendary Pictures' Godzilla film and upcoming sequels, as well as Kong: Skull Island and the upcoming Godzilla vs. Kong!! Let everyone know what you think and discuss your thoughts and ideas about the upcoming films!!!!

Moderator: Controllers

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Sun Jun 23, 2019 6:22 pm

Ultraseven wrote:Just to let you know: here in Peru the first week of Godzilla was dissapointing to say the least (almost empty theaters at release date), but now almost a month later, i can confirm that every showing of Godzilla since two weeks ago are almost full (sometimes just two or three free seats), i think it got a good WOM. Meanwhile MIB: International is a complete disaster, no seat taken for some showings. Here the people were interested in Aladdin and now in Toy Story 4 but now Godzilla is a sleeper hit :D I know that my country box office is not too great but still one of the largest in South America (well behind Brazil btw).

Edit: i have to add that G:KOTM had a very few medium to small billboards in the city that were changed the next week, no newspapers ads, absolutely no TV ads (honestly there is not much TV ads for movies except MCU and Star Wars here) and i just heard a single radio add at release date, so i'm glad that a lot of people are still watching it these days. I hope for more Monsterverse movies besides GvK.


That's awesome! It's good to know that Godzilla is making a good impression in Peru!

Sleeper hits have become very rare in North America.


lhb412 wrote:So, the benefits of Chinese coproduction is that the film gets to play for another month in China, as opposed to the usual four week window for foreign film. It'll eek out a few more dollars there... but I hear there's a big, new film that's killing it at the box office over there called... Spirited Away?

(the Ghibli film's have a big following and have been widely bootlegged there but are just now having official releases and are doing quiet well)

Have I ever talked about my idea for a Kong film series? It'd be set in the late 1800s/early 1900s and star a young princess from Skull Island who befriends Kong and they end up traveling the world and crossing paths with various Jules Verne and Edgar Rice Burroughs characters.

Of course, kinda dependent on a 25 - 30 foot tall Kong at most.


Yes indeed! Spirited Away is the #1 movie in China this weekend!

G:KotM doesn't have Chinese co-production status according to Deadline, so it probably won't play there longer than four weeks. This is its fourth weekend and it's winding down.

I would totally watch your idea for a Kong film series.


Dai wrote:Justice League isn't the comparison I'd make for next year's movie. If it was being billed as Destroy All Monsters then I would agree, but we shouldn't underestimate the mainstream appeal of X vs Y for smashing cultural icons together. Audience appetite for more Kong will most likely be the deciding factor, but at the very least I would hope for a stronger opening for GvK compared to KotM, unless the trailers make it look like a complete train wreck. Even waning characters like Freddy vs Jason managed to out-perform any of the movies from either character's series, IIRC, and Batman v Superman was only considered a financial disappointment because of its ridiculous budget and the impossible benchmark of the first Avengers movie's box office.


Batman v Superman's $250m budget wasn't really ridiculous considering the property. Its $873m worldwide total was a healthy 3.49x return on the budget so it probably did turn a nice profit for WB just from box office revenue. I don't think they were expecting BvS to match the $1.5 billion haul of The Avengers but they were disappointed that making the first live-action Batman/Superman crossover wasn't enough to guarantee the arbitrary, meaningless $1b milestone. The budget didn't necessitate a $1b total but that's definitely what WB wanted from that flick.

The real problem with Dawn of Justice's box office reception was that it was insanely frontloaded. By the end of its opening weekend, it had already brought in more than half of its eventual domestic total and over 47% of its final international haul. It had an extremely weak 1.99x opening weekend-to-domestic total multiplier, which makes G'14's weak 2.15x multiplier look good by comparison. A 1.99x multiplier for a big-budget tentpole is a sign that most viewers just did not care for what they saw, which was especially bad for BvS considering how it was meant to leave audiences jazzed about Justice League.

That overly frontloaded performance is something that Batman v Superman has in common with Freddy vs. Jason (2.26x multiplier) and Alien vs. Predator (2.09x). Freddy vs. Jason did sell more tickets in North America than every Friday the 13th movie except the original, as well as every Nightmare on Elm Street entry, but FvsJ had the advantage of playing in over 3,000 theaters while all of its predecessors played in under 2,000 locations.

Alien vs. Predator had a bigger domestic opening weekend in 2004 than any prior Alien or Predator movie, both in unadjusted dollars and tickets sold, but audience interest disappeared fast. It sold fewer domestic tickets overall than Alien, Aliens, Predator and Alien 3, even though AVP played in 3,400 theaters and most of those played in fewer than 2,000 venues.

Given that history, Godzilla vs. Kong probably isn't going be any leggier of an iconic character crossover, especially with G'14 already being super frontloaded and G:KotM not holding up much better. GvsK's box office fate will be determined by just how big of an opening weekend it can muster because it can expect to fall fast from there.

After the way BvS was received, Justice League was probably bound for the same eventual box office totals even if the final film had been Zack Snyder's original vision. Its $657m worldwide total would have been 2.6x a $250m budget, so it might have been able to break even theatrically if WB hadn't hit the panic button with Joss Whedon and ballooned the budget north of $300m. Either way, $229m domestic toward $657m worldwide was disappointing because it was lower than every prior DCEU entry despite being the big crossover that brought the heroes together.

I worry that Godzilla vs. Kong might be in for a similar fate. I expect it to be the most expensive Monsterverse entry to date because it's the big crossover that brings the titans together. With the sharp downturn in attendance from G'14 to G:KotM, a Godzilla threequel should be expected to have a similarly big drop from G:KotM. It's possible that audience demand for more of Kong will mitigate that but I fear that Godzilla's presence might actually make audiences less interested in GvsK than they would be in just a Skull Island sequel.
Image
User avatar
Benjamin Haines
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 5420
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2004 3:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby lhb412 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:57 pm

^ I heard the Chinese release was expanded to July 30?
User avatar
lhb412
Millennium Godzilla
 
Posts: 15450
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2003 7:11 pm

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby mr.negativity » Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:28 am

The Numbers:
Box Office History for Legendary Pictures Movies


Xinhuanet 2019-06-21:
"Godzilla: King of the Monsters" given extended run on Chinese mainland
BEIJING, June 21 (Xinhua) -- Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment's action film "Godzilla: King of the Monsters" has been given an extended box office run on the Chinese mainland, the film's official Weibo account said Friday.

Debuting on the mainland on May 31, the film is now available in theaters until July 30.

After 20 days of screening, the film has grossed more than 880 million yuan (about 128 million U.S. dollars) on the Chinese mainland.


Godzilla-Movies:
Godzilla 2: King of the Monsters finally crosses $100 Million domestically!
User avatar
mr.negativity
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 8431
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 7:27 am
Location: The Negative Zone

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby angilas » Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:46 am

Benjamin Haines wrote:
angilas wrote:^very interesting. I guess I should have realized marketing etc wouldn’t be included in the listed production budget. I think I just remembered the hoopla surrounding Alita’s ww box office numbers with around the same production budget as KoTM and assumed if it did as well it would be a similar success, but I suppose for a live action film releasing in the summer it takes a lot more to promote.
Well I hope GvKong makes enough to encourage future studios to license Kaiju again


Alita: Battle Angel did better than anyone was expecting. For a new-to-cinema manga adaptation starring an unknown character in a futuristic sci-fi setting, an $85m domestic total toward $404m worldwide is a best-case performance in this era. It certainly did a lot more business than Ghost in the Shell ($40m domestic toward $169m worldwide).

Unfortunately, that best-case $404m worldwide haul is still not enough on its own to justify Alita's $170m production budget. Fox greenlit Alita not so much because they were expecting a profitable new franchise but mainly to placate James Cameron as he prepped their Avatar sequels. There probably won't be an Alita 2 unless Cameron likewise gets Disney to treat it as a down payment for more Avatar.

Damn, I thought Alita was the precursor to more anime films. I guess if anyone would get a $200M budget to placate it’d be Cameron. There still hasn’t been a great terminator film since he left the franchise.

jellydonut25 wrote:I'm not nervous about GvK at all. It's made. It'll get released.

Future of the Monsterverse? It never had one beyond GvK anyway. Only if KOTM had been a BILLION DOLLAR SMASH and I knew it would never be that.


I'm not nervous about whether Godzilla vs. Kong will get released either but I am anxious about its box office reception. After G'14 opened unexpectedly huge and collapsed fast, and then G:KotM took a very different approach only to open much lower and not hold up any better, I think the evidence is mounting that Godzilla is just a character which can draw a collectively huge amount of audience curiosity for a new Hollywood film adaptation only once in a generation.


I walk away with a slightly different take. Godzilla 98 wasn’t really Godzilla and the US has only really seen hero Godzilla.
The original KoTM is too long ago for anyone to remember. G85s audience too limited and G2Ks budget too low to compare it to anything in Hollywood at the time. G14 was friendlier than even hesei Godzilla in the end since he protected people and seemed to try to cause as little damage as possible a la Gamera (the few deaths we learned he directly caused seemed more along the lines of G3’s backstory). So without any basis and very little justification, I’m cautiously optimistic that American audiences would find force of Nature or evil Goji (something between Hesei and GMK) more compelling than the current Earths defender personality that is only one step removed from Hanna Barbera. I don’t know why, I just get a feeling that teens of today would be more interested in seeing something wreak havoc along the lines of Shin Godzilla and adults would be more captivated by a straight military vs Monster flick like the original. The foreign numbers don’t seem disappointing. They seem to be what’s bailing this out of being a complete flop. It’s the US/Canadian sensibility I worry on.
User avatar
angilas
Heisei Godzilla
 
Posts: 1238
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:59 am

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Dai » Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:46 am

angilas wrote:I don’t know why, I just get a feeling that teens of today would be more interested in seeing something wreak havoc along the lines of Shin Godzilla and adults would be more captivated by a straight military vs Monster flick like the original.


The trailers for G2014 were selling an experience closer to G1954, and I suspect that's what drove its massive opening weekend. Before G2014, Godzilla was better known to modern audiences in terms of a vague, zeitgeist-fuelled sense of what the character represents rather than any movie he's been in. I think the mainstream audience who saw it on that opening weekend were hoping for something that would encapsulate the fears and anxiety of the present day. The fact that Shin Godzilla did that so pointedly for modern Japanese anxieties about their government's recent failings is undoubtedly what made it such a hit.

Often Godzilla's most powerful ability isn't his atomic breath, it's catharsis, something that people are in desperate need of. I think that's why G2014 opened far stronger than other US giant monster movies, including the 2005 King Kong, which should have been a slam dunk coming off the back of Peter Jackson's success on Lord of the Rings. And when people saw that G2014 wasn't the movie they expected, the box office plummeted.
User avatar
Dai
Heisei Godzilla
 
Posts: 1032
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:07 pm
Location: UK

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby jellydonut25 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:29 pm

Benjamin Haines wrote:
jellydonut25 wrote:I'm not nervous about GvK at all. It's made. It'll get released.

Future of the Monsterverse? It never had one beyond GvK anyway. Only if KOTM had been a BILLION DOLLAR SMASH and I knew it would never be that.


I'm not nervous about whether Godzilla vs. Kong will get released either but I am anxious about its box office reception.

Oh yeah, see, I don't care. We're not getting any more of these movies, so its success or failure doesn't really matter at all. We got 4 movies. That's 4 more than I thought we'd get. I'm happy.
Gills.

My DVD/Blu-Ray Collection:
http://jellydonut25.filmaf.com/owned
User avatar
jellydonut25
Controller
 
Posts: 18874
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Houston, TX via Buffalo, NY

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby william newell » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:41 pm

Dai wrote:
angilas wrote:I don’t know why, I just get a feeling that teens of today would be more interested in seeing something wreak havoc along the lines of Shin Godzilla and adults would be more captivated by a straight military vs Monster flick like the original.


The trailers for G2014 were selling an experience closer to G1954, and I suspect that's what drove its massive opening weekend. Before G2014, Godzilla was better known to modern audiences in terms of a vague, zeitgeist-fuelled sense of what the character represents rather than any movie he's been in. I think the mainstream audience who saw it on that opening weekend were hoping for something that would encapsulate the fears and anxiety of the present day. The fact that Shin Godzilla did that so pointedly for modern Japanese anxieties about their government's recent failings is undoubtedly what made it such a hit.

Often Godzilla's most powerful ability isn't his atomic breath, it's catharsis, something that people are in desperate need of. I think that's why G2014 opened far stronger than other US giant monster movies, including the 2005 King Kong, which should have been a slam dunk coming off the back of Peter Jackson's success on Lord of the Rings. And when people saw that G2014 wasn't the movie they expected, the box office plummeted.


There is much wisdom here..
william newell
Heisei Godzilla
 
Posts: 1613
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2003 2:29 pm
Location: Hamilton, New Jersey

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby mr.negativity » Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:00 pm

jellydonut25 wrote:Oh yeah, see, I don't care. We're not getting any more of these movies, so its success or failure doesn't really matter at all. We got 4 movies. That's 4 more than I thought we'd get. I'm happy.


william newell wrote:There is much wisdom here.



Mr H Reviews Jun 25, 2019:
Godzilla King Of The Monsters Box Office Is SAVED - Chinese Extended Run
Spoiler Below:
phpBB [media]
Last edited by mr.negativity on Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
mr.negativity
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 8431
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 7:27 am
Location: The Negative Zone

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Russzilla » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:34 pm

I still can’t help but to think that G:KOTM was still also hurt by the time in between G’14 and G:KOTM. I mean, even though we got K:SI in between, we’re still talking about a five year gap between movies. I just think that the Godzilla movies should’ve been released in a shorter time frame while it was still kinda fresh in some of the consumers heads. As mentioned above, we’ll get KvsG, be happy that we’re getting that, the US Godzilla movies will come to an end, then Toho will take over Godzilla again.
Russzilla
Heisei Godzilla
 
Posts: 1298
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:31 pm
Location: London, KY via Boston/Philadelphia

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby The Shadow » Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:35 pm

WB & Legendary should have done more to impress on audiences that K:SI was in the same universe as G'14. I imagine the average moviegoer probably thinks G:KOTM is the second Monsterverse movie rather than the third.

Looking back, it may have been better if the advertising treated K:SI as a sequel to G'14; use a trailer to hype up Kong as an eventual challenger to Godzilla as the king of monsters (maybe even make that the core of the advertising campaign).
Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?
User avatar
The Shadow
Burning Godzilla
 
Posts: 2166
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2004 5:25 pm
Location: Kansas

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Russzilla » Thu Jun 27, 2019 4:09 am

The Shadow wrote:WB & Legendary should have done more to impress on audiences that K:SI was in the same universe as G'14. I imagine the average moviegoer probably thinks G:KOTM is the second Monsterverse movie rather than the third.

Looking back, it may have been better if the advertising treated K:SI as a sequel to G'14; use a trailer to hype up Kong as an eventual challenger to Godzilla as the king of monsters (maybe even make that the core of the advertising campaign).


I can tell you right now that you’re probably right. As an aside also, when we went to see Skull Island, the theater was packed pretty well, but when the credits started, the theater was emptying out, and there was only about five of us that stayed for the end credit scene, pretty sure mainly because we knew about it. My point being, a lot of moviegoers probably left the theaters not knowing that the movies were gonna be connected, thus verifying what you just said.
Russzilla
Heisei Godzilla
 
Posts: 1298
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:31 pm
Location: London, KY via Boston/Philadelphia

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:46 pm

Godzilla: King of the Monsters ended its fourth week of play with $104.5 million in North America. For comparison, Godzilla had earned $188.1m after four weeks, which was more than 93% of its eventual $200.6m domestic total, while Kong: Skull Island's $150.7m four-week haul was 89% of its $168m total. If G:KotM can hold up as well as G'14 from here, it'll finish with $111m in North America.


lhb412 wrote:^ I heard the Chinese release was expanded to July 30?


I didn't realize that but you're right! I'm surprised considering how fast G:KotM has been dropping in China. Avengers: Infinity War had its Chinese run extended last year but that was due to audience demand.


angilas wrote:
Benjamin Haines wrote:I'm not nervous about whether Godzilla vs. Kong will get released either but I am anxious about its box office reception. After G'14 opened unexpectedly huge and collapsed fast, and then G:KotM took a very different approach only to open much lower and not hold up any better, I think the evidence is mounting that Godzilla is just a character which can draw a collectively huge amount of audience curiosity for a new Hollywood film adaptation only once in a generation.


I walk away with a slightly different take. Godzilla 98 wasn’t really Godzilla and the US has only really seen hero Godzilla.
The original KoTM is too long ago for anyone to remember. G85s audience too limited and G2Ks budget too low to compare it to anything in Hollywood at the time. G14 was friendlier than even hesei Godzilla in the end since he protected people and seemed to try to cause as little damage as possible a la Gamera (the few deaths we learned he directly caused seemed more along the lines of G3’s backstory). So without any basis and very little justification, I’m cautiously optimistic that American audiences would find force of Nature or evil Goji (something between Hesei and GMK) more compelling than the current Earths defender personality that is only one step removed from Hanna Barbera. I don’t know why, I just get a feeling that teens of today would be more interested in seeing something wreak havoc along the lines of Shin Godzilla and adults would be more captivated by a straight military vs Monster flick like the original. The foreign numbers don’t seem disappointing. They seem to be what’s bailing this out of being a complete flop. It’s the US/Canadian sensibility I worry on.


It's certainly possible that western audiences would be more captivated by a Hollywood-produced Godzilla movie that depicts him as the story's antagonist. For all of the classic series tropes that G'14 and especially G:KotM have hit, one thing that's notably absent from both of Legendary's movies is an old-fashioned sequence of Godzilla rampaging through a city. Maybe that's what western audiences really wanted from those movies. Sure, Kong: Skull Island was a hit even though it neglected to have Kong climbing city skyscrapers and instead reveled in the monster battles and gnarly creatures on the island, but maybe that's because those are the tropes that western audiences expect from a Kong film. Maybe an antagonistic, destructive Godzilla who rampages through cities and threatens humanity's existence is what western audiences expect from a Godzilla flick.

That possibility makes sense to me when I think through it like that. However, I think a big part of why that makes sense to me is because I'm a lifelong, dedicated fan of these movies and I appreciate the nuances in how Godzilla and Kong are depicted onscreen. As a fan, I can consider how there are certain Godzilla movies I like more than others and there are takes on the character that I think have worked better than other attempts. To most general audiences, though, Godzilla is simply Godzilla and they couldn't describe how certain takes on the character differ from others if their lives depended on it. To most would-be viewers of the latest Hollywood adaptation, Godzilla is simply whatever is presented in the movie. Most American viewers who watched GINO had no idea that the monster acted any differently from the Japanese version.


Dai wrote:
angilas wrote:I don’t know why, I just get a feeling that teens of today would be more interested in seeing something wreak havoc along the lines of Shin Godzilla and adults would be more captivated by a straight military vs Monster flick like the original.


The trailers for G2014 were selling an experience closer to G1954, and I suspect that's what drove its massive opening weekend. Before G2014, Godzilla was better known to modern audiences in terms of a vague, zeitgeist-fuelled sense of what the character represents rather than any movie he's been in. I think the mainstream audience who saw it on that opening weekend were hoping for something that would encapsulate the fears and anxiety of the present day. The fact that Shin Godzilla did that so pointedly for modern Japanese anxieties about their government's recent failings is undoubtedly what made it such a hit.

Often Godzilla's most powerful ability isn't his atomic breath, it's catharsis, something that people are in desperate need of. I think that's why G2014 opened far stronger than other US giant monster movies, including the 2005 King Kong, which should have been a slam dunk coming off the back of Peter Jackson's success on Lord of the Rings. And when people saw that G2014 wasn't the movie they expected, the box office plummeted.


That plummeting box office wasn't unique to G'14, though. The same thing happened with GINO 21 years ago and G:KotM this year.

GINO had the biggest domestic opening weekend of 1998, with previews beginning on Tuesday night in advance of the Memorial Day weekend back when that was still considered the beginning of the Summer blockbuster season. Audience interest dropped so fast that it had already grossed more than 54% of its eventual domestic total by the end of Memorial Day, the Monday after opening weekend.

G'14 opened to an unexpectedly huge $93m with an estimated 11,187,100 tickets sold from Thursday night previews through Sunday. That was actually almost identical to the estimated 11,882,100 tickets that GINO sold during the Friday-Monday weekend of its extended opening. If we likewise count G'14's Thursday night previews as its opening night, G'14 had earned a comparative 56% of its eventual domestic total through its first Wednesday.

The way WB sold G:KotM was largely uncharted territory. It was the third Hollywood adaptation but the first Hollywood Godzilla sequel. It was the first American production to feature other Toho kaiju and incorporate classic musical cues. It was actively trying to appeal to viewers who are familiar with the Japanese Godzilla films. The biggest departure from how previous American adaptations were sold, though, was how WB basically gave away the entire movie in the marketing. GINO had that infamous 'hide the monster' pre-release campaign which backfired spectacularly. G'14's marketing mostly hid the presence of the MUTOs and sold the movie as a Godzilla-centric story starring Bryan Cranston, which also backfired. Anecdotally, I've never met any non-fans who watched G'14 and complained about Godzilla not being evil or a lack of city destruction. The complaints I've heard from non-fans have always been that Godzilla was barely in the movie, that they weren't expecting the other bug monsters, and/or that they were surprised Bryan Cranston died so early in the movie.

With G:KotM, WB laid all of their cards on the table. They put 90% of the film's big money shots in the trailers and TV spots. They openly flaunted the designs for each monster with their individualized posters. The ads made no bones about what kind of movie viewers could expect to see, with one of the TV spots fearing scenes of the monsters battling set to "Mama Said Knock You Out" by LL Cool J. All of that brought G:KotM to the smallest opening weekend for a Hollywood Godzilla movie to date.

Maybe GINO's plummeting box office after its huge opening was due to general audiences recognizing that the monster wasn't true to the classic Godzilla. Maybe G'14's plummeting box office after its huge opening was due to general audiences wanting a different take on Godzilla more in line with the 1954 or 1984 versions. However, if those movies did plummet because they misled audiences by not meeting their Godzilla-specific expectations, then G:KotM's outright honest marketing coupled with its already low opening theoretically should have meant that it would have held up better than GINO or G'14. With nearly half of the people who showed up for G'14 on its $93m opening weekend already staying away from G:KotM's $47m opening, after the marketing showed people exactly what they were in for, then the audiences who did show up would have known what to expect and there shouldn't have been nearly as big of a drop in interest from there as there was for both previous Hollywood Godzilla adaptations.

G:KotM didn't hold up any better, though, even after its honest marketing and its smaller opening. It's on track to finish around $111m domestic, which would mean that it had grossed between 54% and 55% of its eventual domestic total through its first Wednesday, right in line with GINO and G'14. That's three different Hollywood-produced Godzilla films with three wildly different approaches in tone and marketing, with two of the three drawing a huge level of initial audience interest, and all three of them had the same plummeting box office.

As Godzilla fans, we can easily pick apart the differences in these three movies and come up with so many possible ways that future Hollywood productions could approach Godzilla differently. We can speculate about how there might be a particular approach that could tap into the American cultural zeitgeist and produce a modern classic of a Hollywood adaptation that really leaves an impression on audiences and makes Godzilla as popular and mainstream as Star Wars or The Avengers. Based on how the three different Hollywood adaptations have been received, however, I think this is unfortunately just the limit for Godzilla as a potential Hollywood film franchise in the modern era and probably forever. Godzilla has been around for 65 years and the number of movies is infamously countless. Godzilla is an indelible cinematic icon but most people don't care about Godzilla movies and never will beyond checking out a new Hollywood reboot once in a generation. There will always be new Godzilla fans but it's not a mainstream brand that's growing in popularity, which in Hollywood terms means that Godzilla can't sustain an ongoing series of tentpole films that cost over $160m apiece. Godzilla will always be a cult favorite brand and there's really nothing wrong with that.


Russzilla wrote:
The Shadow wrote:WB & Legendary should have done more to impress on audiences that K:SI was in the same universe as G'14. I imagine the average moviegoer probably thinks G:KOTM is the second Monsterverse movie rather than the third.

Looking back, it may have been better if the advertising treated K:SI as a sequel to G'14; use a trailer to hype up Kong as an eventual challenger to Godzilla as the king of monsters (maybe even make that the core of the advertising campaign).


I can tell you right now that you’re probably right. As an aside also, when we went to see Skull Island, the theater was packed pretty well, but when the credits started, the theater was emptying out, and there was only about five of us that stayed for the end credit scene, pretty sure mainly because we knew about it. My point being, a lot of moviegoers probably left the theaters not knowing that the movies were gonna be connected, thus verifying what you just said.


It's definitely true that most moviegoers were unaware that Kong: Skull Island was set in the same world as G'14 but that was probably a good thing. K:SI's box office performance was truly a best-case scenario and it probably wouldn't have been if WB had sold it as a cog in a larger cinematic universe. That same year, Universal's The Mummy stumbled after they sold it as the first chapter in their would-be Dark Universe, while Paramount's Transformers: The Last Knight attempted to retrofit the series into a cinematic universe and turned away most audiences.

Hollywood has been attempting to mimic the success of the MCU but one thing that's become clear is that moviegoers aren't inherently drawn to the concept of a cinematic universe. The basic concept of interconnection wasn't why The Avengers was a bigger hit than any of its predecessors. The promise of a cinematic universe doesn't make new movies more appealing than they otherwise are. If anything, it could be that the threat of committing to a new cinematic universe was part of what kept audiences away from movies like The Mummy.

We chastise WB for tripping over themselves trying to catch up to Marvel, and it's true that they failed to build up the overall DCEU brand and make it catch on with general audiences in the same way as the MCU, mainly because they just couldn't wait to get to the big crossovers. However, aside from Justice League, WB really hasn't messed up in terms of spending too much on movies that don't have enough audience interest to justify the expense. The DCEU brand may not be a selling point in the same way as the MCU but the DCEU movies themselves have almost always been successful, even if they haven't always left viewers satisfied or met WB's inflated expectations. On the flip side, WB has arguably been building up Legendary's Monsterverse in a more patient manner, first by introducing Godzilla and Kong in their own separate reboots, then by making a Godzilla sequel, and finally by pitting them together in a big crossover. After G'14 and K:SI, there was hope that audiences were invested in seeing more of these versions of Godzilla and Kong and ultimately seeing them together in the same flick. However, after G:KotM, there's clearly no mainstream interest in the Monsterverse as a series. Audience interest in Godzilla is not growing, and whether interest in Kong was a similar once-in-a-generation event which Skull Island placated or if there really is audience demand for more of this version of Kong, it's possible that pitting Kong against Godzilla will end up yielding the lowest level of audience interest of any Monsterverse entry.
Image
User avatar
Benjamin Haines
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 5420
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2004 3:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby goji4ever » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:35 pm

what path will G vs Kong follow in its advertisement campaign?

“If” there is a unifying threat... will they show it?
User avatar
goji4ever
Little Godzilla
 
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 12:29 pm

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Henry88 » Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:55 pm

https://www.firstshowing.net/schedule2020/
March 2020
March 6 (Friday)

Pixar's Onward
March 13 (Friday)

Godzilla vs. Kong
The Invisible Man
March 20 (Friday)

I Still Believe
A Quiet Place 2
March 27 (Friday)

Mulan

not as much competition
ROBOT CO-OP IS GAMING COMEDY
https://robotco-op.com/
User avatar
Henry88
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 7088
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:06 pm
Location: Heflin,AL

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Dai » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:56 pm

That line-up actually looks quite worrying. The Pixar movie doesn't look like anything special, but how often do Pixar's "what if X were like normal people?" formula movies flop? A Quiet Place 2 will probably be a solid performer for at least a couple of weeks, and then Mulan may well kill any chance GvK has of developing legs.
User avatar
Dai
Heisei Godzilla
 
Posts: 1032
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:07 pm
Location: UK

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:58 pm

I don't think Godzilla: King of the Monsters was sunk by box office competition. Aladdin is a big and leggy hit, with a $116m Memorial Day opening weekend toward $331 domestic and counting, but it's got nothing on 2017's Beauty and the Beast. That movie opened to $174m the week AFTER Kong: Skull Island and that still didn't stop K:SI from dropping a solid -54.4% that weekend. Compare that to G:KotM's -67.7% second-weekend plunge while Dark Phoenix debuted to just $32m.

March 2017 had Logan, Kong: Skull Island and Beauty and the Beast opening back-to-back-to-back and all three saw their best-case scenario box office results. Conversely, in May/June 2019 we had Aladdin, Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Dark Phoenix open consecutively and only one of them had a best-case reception. It really comes down to how many people want to see the movies in question.

Given the very un-leggy track record of Legendary's Godzilla movies and the very un-leggy history of crossover films like Freddy vs. Jason, Alien vs. Predator and Batman v Superman, it's unlikely that Godzilla vs. Kong will be any leggier no matter what opens in its wake. It needs to open significantly bigger than K:SI and especially G:KotM to have a shot at recouping its costs theatrically. I hope WB isn't in the process of making the movie more expensive right now.
Image
User avatar
Benjamin Haines
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 5420
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2004 3:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Baltan II » Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:06 pm

I’m banning you from ever writing “leggy” again. :lol:
Image
User avatar
Baltan II
Burning Godzilla
 
Posts: 2474
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2003 2:27 am
Location: Pennsylvania

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Henry88 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:13 pm

so what are the odds that GODZILLA vs KONG is dead on arrival?
ROBOT CO-OP IS GAMING COMEDY
https://robotco-op.com/
User avatar
Henry88
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 7088
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:06 pm
Location: Heflin,AL

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby O.Supreme » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:38 pm

^What, like they wont release it at all?...I seriously doubt that, I'm truly looking forward to it. Pretty sure this will be the last, so I have to enjoy it for all it will be.
There are no more good TV Shows, only ones that haven't disappointed me yet.
O.Supreme
Burning Godzilla
 
Posts: 3383
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2006 6:02 pm
Location: Born in the Bay Area, but stuck in Sacto

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Henry88 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:45 pm

O.Supreme wrote:^What, like they wont release it at all?...I seriously doubt that, I'm truly looking forward to it. Pretty sure this will be the last, so I have to enjoy it for all it will be.


more like dead at the box-office.
ROBOT CO-OP IS GAMING COMEDY
https://robotco-op.com/
User avatar
Henry88
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 7088
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:06 pm
Location: Heflin,AL

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Gwangi » Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:50 am

Henry88 wrote:
O.Supreme wrote:^What, like they wont release it at all?...I seriously doubt that, I'm truly looking forward to it. Pretty sure this will be the last, so I have to enjoy it for all it will be.


more like dead at the box-office.


I would not say it is dead. Of course, unless one is a clairvoyant, none of us can guarantee the success of this film, box-office wise. I can only go on assumption. The title has two names that the public is very familiar with, and that fact that there is a little less competition in March, I feel that maybe this film has a good shot of raking in the dough. Of course, a lot depends on the movie itself. "G:KOTM" was lambasted by critics, while the fan base was perhaps (roughly) 60-40 in favor of it. If "G vs K" is able to get higher marks on both of those fronts, then I think the movie will be a financial success.
User avatar
Gwangi
Heisei Godzilla
 
Posts: 1680
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 1:52 am
Location: El Toro, CA

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby O.Supreme » Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:25 am

Frankenstein meets the Wolfman (1943) was the *original* monster crossover, and something Universal hoped to build towards in their, now defunct *Dark Universe*

Other large Franchise crossovers people have wanted, that we got were:

Freddy vs Jason: Was financially successful, even if a critical failure. It probably should have happened about a decade earlier.
Alien vs. Predator Pretty much the same. Both films (even the sequel) did well financially, it was just their overall negative reaction by fans & critics that prevented further sequels. Again IMHO this also occurred about a decade too late.

Robocop vs Terminator, never made the leap form comics to film. At this point, I'm sure fans of BOTH franchises probably feel that was for the best.

King Kong vs Godzilla or/ Godzilla vs Kong This to me is different. Both characters have come in and out of the public's awareness many times over the decades. (Not just a product of the 80's/90's and got films too late) Also, unlike all those other franchises, this one is getting a far larger budget. I know we as Kaiju fans have been awaiting this for a long time, and up until...2016 or so...(Whenever LP/WB made the deal with Universal to get the rights to Kong), we never thought would happen again.

I'm going to enjoy it for all it's worth. Personally I thought KotM was a great film, and thought would have much more mass audience appeal, but I was wrong. I have little reason to believe General Audience reaction will be much different next year, but I hope I'm wrong.

Although it's nice to know fictional characters like this are seemingly timeless. Also I now we cant compare real life people to fictional characters, but I remember in the 80's when Hulk Hogan was dominating the WWF, and Ric Flair was dominating the NWA. Playground fantasy discussions about these two clashing were epic. Too bad when it finally happened in the late 90's, it was again, a case of a decade too late. :wink:
There are no more good TV Shows, only ones that haven't disappointed me yet.
O.Supreme
Burning Godzilla
 
Posts: 3383
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2006 6:02 pm
Location: Born in the Bay Area, but stuck in Sacto

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby Benjamin Haines » Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:22 pm

It looks like Godzilla: King of the Monsters may have hit the second-run theaters this past weekend. After losing venues quickly week after week, its theater count increased by 20 and its weekend gross grew +32.4% from the previous weekend. It's nothing that will change the movie's box office fortunes but if you live near a second-run theater, now might be your chance to catch Godzilla, Ghidorah, Mothra and Rodan on the big screen one more time.
Image
User avatar
Benjamin Haines
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 5420
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2004 3:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby O.Supreme » Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:40 am

I can confirm it hit my local Mall $4 theater this past Friday. I asked my son if he wanted to see it one more time...he was content to wait for the BRD
There are no more good TV Shows, only ones that haven't disappointed me yet.
O.Supreme
Burning Godzilla
 
Posts: 3383
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2006 6:02 pm
Location: Born in the Bay Area, but stuck in Sacto

Re: the Godzilla box office guessing game.

Postby mr.negativity » Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:37 am

THR 8/14/2019:
The Vanishing $200 Million Blockbuster
Stephen Galloway wrote:Legendary's 'Godzilla: King of the Monsters' grossed only $110 million domestically after its May 31 launch, and made up ground abroad to collect $385 million worldwide.

In an increasingly stratified box office landscape dominated by Disney, not a single film this year so far has topped out between $200 million to $300 million domestically.

Around the turn of the century, there was a magic number at the box office: $100 million. Any movie crossing that mark domestically was a hit; anything falling too far short (except indie and art-house releases) was, if not quite a flop, at least a disappointment.

I remember the palpable sense of relief Paramount felt in 2001 when the much-troubled Lara Croft: Tomb Raider made it to $131 million in North America (a fraction less than it earned internationally). That was enough to confirm Angelina Jolie as an unequaled and inimitable star — and also for the studio to misguidedly greenlight a sequel; you could sell a movie the first time out of the gate, it discovered, but you couldn’t convince an audience to return for the follow-up.

By the end of the decade, the magic number had changed. $100 million was chicken feed; $200 million was now the figure a movie had to surpass. You might suspect this was just a logical progression, an obvious reflection of inflation. But the numbers were way beyond anything inflation could account for: Box office of $100 million in 2000 was equivalent to $127 million in 2010; it’s equivalent to $149 million today.

What the change represented was something else: Hollywood’s willingness to take risks. The bets were getting bigger and the rewards had to be commensurately huge. Singles and doubles no longer counted; everything was about the home run.

You’d think as corporations increasingly muscled into the studio landscape, they’d want to play safe. But playing safe, they believed, meant investing in sequels, even if their budgets soared to astronomical levels. Inevitably, the more $200 million became established as the measure of success, the greedier everyone became.

Now — surprise, surprise — $300 million has sometimes become the dividing line between failure and success for tentpole pictures. Earn more than that in North America, and you’re a bona fide hit; earn any less, and there’s a question-mark hanging over your performance. Or at least there would be, if the domestic market weren’t a mere loss leader for foreign revenues.

If the U.S. and Canada matter at all, you wouldn’t know it. Sequels are sometimes greenlit from pictures that make just over $100 million in the home market (Pacific Rim), and ones that earn only a bit more can find redemption internationally (like Godzilla: King of the Monsters, which took in $110 million domestically and $275 million foreign).

That’s the status quo. If the domestic take figures into the equation, it’s for bragging rights and prestige, and perception rather than reality. And perception says: $300 million is what separates the winners from the losers.
Now here’s the really bad news: the borderline between the two has become bigger and broader than ever before, judging from the latest box office numbers.

Back in the days when $100 million defined success, a host of movies would regularly come close to that target: they’d bring in $80 million or $90 million and still be considered “modest” hits. But now there’s no such thing as a modest hit.

In the first eight months of 2019, not a single motion picture has topped out between $200 million to $300 million domestically, the “gray zone” that can separate failure from success.

Six movies in the same timeframe made more than $300 million domestically, and some did massively more than that (topped by Avengers: Endgame with $858 million, Lion King with $473 million, Captain Marvel with $427 million and Toy Story 4 with $420 million — all Disney releases). And this year will have a record six films grossing more than $1 billion apiece, when Toy Story 4 crosses that milestone in a few days.

But consider the gap between the top six domestic box office hits and the seventh: Aladdin came in at No. 6 with $353 million in North America; next, after a whopping gap, was Jordan Peele's Us with $175 million — a hugely profitable film, but not even close to the big boys.

The question is, why? Is it because the studios simply aren’t making movies that are expected to do OK stateside (unless they’re genre pictures like Us)? Or is it because audiences themselves are steering away from the middle ground, conditioned to think as big as the movie manufacturers?

My guess is the latter. Just as the majors have stopped caring about pictures that only do all right, so have ticket-buyers, taught to think big by news reports and a marketing machine that endlessly touts what’s at the top of the box office to the exclusion of everything else.

It’s a vicious cycle: the more the studios put their eggs in one basket, the more audiences look at that basket and don’t bother to seek elsewhere.

That all-or-nothing strategy is dangerous. It’s only a matter of time before one too many tentpoles falls short — and not only falls short but with a thudding, thwacking, bone-cracking cacophony. And when that happens several times over, the consequences will be brutal. Studios will collapse, entire fleets of employees will lose their jobs.

Fox has already seen those consequences. To all intents and purposes, as a movie studio it’s ceased to exist. Disney recently made clear how disappointing its numbers were and shunted its sole mid-range division, Fox 2000, off to the sidelines, effectively to become part of Sony. Inevitably, other companies that bet too big will disappear too.

We’re at a turning point. Hollywood is allowing great chunks of box office real-estate to fall into the sea, as surely as the cliffs where the moguls love to build, their homes. But that real-estate has value and needs shoring up.

The entire industry has to step back and consider the long-term results. Massive gambles don’t simply result in massive wins but also massive losses — perhaps not this year or even the next but at some time in the near future. And when those losses come, they’ll be catastrophic.

Unless the business aims to re-take the middle ground — the ground that has been ceded altogether at the box office this year — there may not be an industry at all.
User avatar
mr.negativity
Meltdown Godzilla
 
Posts: 8431
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 7:27 am
Location: The Negative Zone

PreviousNext

Return to Legendary's MonsterVerse

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests