the Godzilla box office guessing game.

[Henry88]

the idea is to guess correctly or get close to box office totals of Godzilla king of the monsters, the prize is bragging rights.

mine is 700m to 750m

[jellydonut25]

[O.Supreme]

2014 Godzilla - 200M Domestic, 529 M WW (160M Budget)
2017 Kong - 168M Domestic, 566M WW (185M Budget)

Keep in mind if you consider the 3X budget multiplyer, BOTH of these films were just *barely* profitable

2019 King of the Monsters... NEEDS to make at least $650M WW to be considered profitable, let alone successful...I have little doubt this movie will be amazing, I just don't know how much general audiances even want a Monsterverse right now. I'm fairly certain that it will do well in non-US markets, but it's got heavy competition with a May 31 release date. It may get buried between other tentpole pictures

4/26 Avengers: End Game
5/24 Aladdin
5/31 Godzilla - King of the Monsters
6/7 Dark Phoenix
6/7 Secret Life of Pets 2
6/14 MIB International
06/21 Toy Story 4

Disney is tough for me to get a read on, because I'm not a big fan of their films. I have no idea what audiences want. I thought Mary Poppins was going to blow away the Holiday competition. I was quite happy to be wrong. But with Aladdin, I look a the last "shot-for-shot" live action remake Disney did (Beauty & the Beast) raked in 1B+

Godzilla has a shot at being #1 in it's opening weekend, if Aladdin receives a luke warm reception, however if it takes off, Godzilla will never do better than #2, which is sad.

[angilas]

Aladdin is PG though and this is PG-13. Despite the overlap I think this will do well. 300M domestic. 400M overseas for a total of 700 worldwide

[lhb412]

I'm guessing somewhere between $0.35 and 10 billion dollars. Somewhere in there.

[mr.negativity]

[Jorzilla]

$1

[goji4ever]

id love for it to kill at box office, but Aladdin and the precious tomato score will matter..

I also feel it will be a one and done for many so a 2nd week drop might be huge...I would want it to be movie of the summer but even I dont see myself doing multiple viewings

[Dai]

It's a difficult one to call. It's fast-paced and action-packed, which should have kids coming out of it with a lot of enthusiasm, but the thin characterisation and basic plot means word-of-mouth could go either way with mainstream adult viewers. Then there's the China factor: KotM is OTT and crazy, but is it OTT and crazy enough to make it catch fire in China, a la Aquaman and Bayformers? I'm not convinced on that front.

I think there will be a disappointing, but not disastrous, drop-off on the second weekend. Dark Phoenix will go down like the Hindenburg, so there's nothing to worry about there. MIB International is where KotM will really start to lose business on weekend 3, I think. It looks pretty mediocre, but audiences were buzzing from Comedy Thor in Endgame, and I think a lot of people will flock to Chris Hemsworth doing another humourous role, especially since they can't watch Endgame at home yet. There's not really any other big-ticket SF action coming out after that until July though (unless I'm forgetting something), so if MIB underperforms then KotM could hang in there for a while longer.

Then there's the reviews. I don't think the tepid critical reaction will damage it as much as Pacific Rim: Uprising, but they won't do it any favours.

If KotM doesn't grab China, and MIB performs well, my uninformed magic 8-ball says it might be as low as $393m. If China likes it, we might be looking at $480m. But I think the only way for it to break $500m is if China likes it and MIB underperforms.

Making up numbers is fun.

[mr.negativity]

[TerranigmaFreak]

At least $15. That's how much I paid for my ticket.

[mr.negativity]

‘Godzilla: King’ Of The B.O. With $49M+ But Less Fire



‘Godzilla: King Of The Monsters’ Diving Lower Overseas, Eyes $130M International Weekend Bow

[mr.negativity]

[TerranigmaFreak]

Damn, that's very disappointing to hear.

[Zack Metoyer]

Conventional wisdom states that a film should triple its budget to make a profit if the majority of ticket sales are overseas, because production companies in the US get so little back from China, etc.

But Legendary is a Chinese company, making Godzilla largely a Chinese production. Doesn't that change the dynamic considerably? Their parent company, Wanda, also owns AMC theaters, don't they?

So maybe this film doesn't have to hit the conventionally expected numbers to turn a profit after all?

[lhb412]

It's doing well in Japan!

(Which, if you're a long-range forecaster, is the best news)

[Moonlight SY-3]

[lhb412]

^ Neato.

[O.Supreme]

It is confusing to me. I've watched many videos about statistics, timing of release, general populace interest, and I just don't get it. Sure I'm a Godzilla fan, and that may skew things a bit. However, G2014 was generally well received, despite both fans and critics lament that there simply wasn't enough Monster Action. Kong received even more favorable reviews, and built anticipation for KotM. So...why did KotM (despite winning the weekend) fall so flat? It delivered what it promised, and gave both fans and critics what was lacking in the previous film. I plan on seeing it again, but since this was pretty much a day-and-date release, it cant count on large influxes from other markets down the line. It will likely get buried by other summer tent pole films, as I feared. I guess the one good thing is that we are at least guaranteed Godzilla vs Kong, however it seems pretty bleak at this point, that there will be any additional Monsterverse entries, which is sad, especially after KotM, I want to see more.

[mr.negativity]

Godzilla Postmortem: Repercussions of the underperformance on the Monsterverse

[Henry88]

And wasn't there an article in variety yesterday that called Godzilla a fading franchise

[mr.negativity]

‘Godzilla: King of the Monsters’: Inside a Fading Franchise

[Benjamin Haines]

Godzilla: King of the Monsters opened to a disappointing $47.7 million domestic over the weekend. That is 49% lower than Godzilla's $93.1m domestic launch in 2014, although it was never going to come close to that figure. The real disappointment is the fact that this is 22% lower than Kong: Skull Island's $61m domestic opening.

G'14 made 24% of its opening Friday figure and 10% of its opening weekend from Thursday night previews, with a 2.42x Friday-to-weekend multiplier. Conversely, K:SI's Thursday previews comprised just 18% of the opening Friday and 6% of the weekend total, with an exceptional 3x Friday-to-weekend multiplier.

G:KotM's Thursday previews made up a whopping 32% of the Friday figure and 13% of the opening weekend, with a 2.45x Friday-to-weekend multiplier. Part of that is due to the fact that showtimes started as early as 4 PM on Thursday, which meant more showtimes before Friday even began. Regardless, this is a very frontloaded debut which indicates that G:KotM is playing largely to the converted. It did not have anything resembling the kid-powered weekend legs of K:SI.

Now, to keep a level perspective, a $47m domestic opening is not a low figure in and of itself. It's a bigger launch than the likes of Rampage ($35m) and Ready Player One ($41m), two hit movies that were profitable for WB last year. G:KotM may be flopping in terms of turning a profit on its $170m budget but it's not outright bombing. The newest Godzilla movie just sold an estimated 5.3 million tickets in North America in its opening weekend and that's nothing to scoff at. There is a sizable audience for Godzilla.

That being said, the audiences who did turn out for G:KotM are as mixed on it as those who saw G'14. Unlike the unscientific IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes user scores, conducts real scientific polls of moviegoers who go to see a new flick on opening day, and both G'14 and G:KotM produced the exact same B+ CInemascore rating, indicating a mixed reception.

Isn't that wild? G:KotM is about as different an approach from G'14 as you can get, and the audiences who turned out to see them gave them both the same mix of yays and nays. From the general audience complaints about G'14 ("Godzilla isn't in it enough") to the fan complaints ("Less drama, more action!"), Legendary listened and offered a sequel that delivered more of what people claimed to want the first time..... and the reception among those who saw it was the same as before.

What does that mean? I think it indicates that G'14's unexpectedly huge opening weekend was driven much more by casual curiosity than anybody realized, and no matter how differently that movie could have been made (say, with more Godzilla than MUTOs, more Bryan Cranston than ATJ and more action overall), its quick-kill box office performance probably had less to do with the movie itself and more to do with people's fleeting curiosity about checking out the first take on Godzilla in the modern era. I think this goes to show that Legendary and WB's effort to turn Godzilla into an ongoing A-level Hollywood franchise was never going to pan out. It's just not in the cards. Godzilla is a well-known pop culture icon but the mere prospect of going to see the umpteenth new Godzilla movie isn't an idea that's growing in popularity.

Maybe Godzilla is the kind of cinematic brand than can drum up enough audience interest to justify one new big-budget Hollywood reboot once in a generation, but Godzilla clearly isn't a brand that can justify an ongoing series of Hollywood tentpoles that cost upwards of $170m a pop. Godzilla is not that franchise and it's probably never going to be, at least not in this era.

And you know what? That's okay! We fans now have two Legendary/WB Godzilla flicks to enjoy forever, with a third already on the way. Godzilla vs. Kong is likely to be the last entry in the Monsterverse whether it manages to turn a profit or not but the end of this quadrilogy won't make the existing four movies disappear. These films are a part of the Godzilla series now and you can be sure that a lot of the kids who see G:KotM today are going to grow into lifelong Godzilla fans. Even though it isn't turning into the next MCU or the next Transformers or the next Pirates of the Caribbean, the Monsterverse has been an interesting and important phase in the Godzilla pantheon. It's been a fun ride and we've still got one more stop next March!

[The Shadow]

[Gwangi]

‘Godzilla: King of the Monsters’ Didn’t Roar at the Domestic Box Office but Legendary Isn’t Sweating



Apologies as the article is cut off (one has to be a paying member to read the whole thing!).

While I think that all of us would have liked to have seen a higher number, in the end, I think the more disastrous result would have been had this finished with an even less take and behind Disney's "Aladdin", which I initially had concerns when this schedule was released. The Monsterverse will continue one with one more movie, and it will only be next month where we will most definitely get a teaser for "G vs. K" at San Diego Comic Con. And my gut says that the Monsterverse will continue even after that film (of course, if "G vs K" comes in with an even lower take, then all bets are off).