Box Office Discussion

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Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Thu May 29, 2014 7:21 am

I agree, people who want to simply enjoy Godzilla, should stay away from Box Office discussions... I created this thread for those who want to go beyond that and talk about its BO performance.

As of today(early Wed numbers came in this morning):

DOMESTIC: 161
OVERSEAS: 166
GLOBAL: 327

The good news.. It looks like the drops here are stabilizing a bit. After this weekend, we should be anywhere from 175-180. I'm hoping to be at 200 Overseas by the end of the weekend, which would put us at around 375-380.

We have two markets left, Japan and China. Both are hard to predict, but my current guesstimate is 30 in Japan and 70 in China.

Cooksons final predictions:

DOMESTIC: 210
OVERSEAS: 310
GLOBAL: 520

This is on a 160 budget with the profit margin starting at 380

A comparable film is actually, XMEN FIRST CLASS, which had the same budget and only pulled in 350 GLOBALLY.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Thu May 29, 2014 7:31 am

Another comparable film..

On a slightly smaller budget of 150, BATMAN BEGINS made 206 DOMESTICALLY and 167 OVERSEAS for a total of 374. BEGINS was also the start of a reboot.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby HannibalBarca » Thu May 29, 2014 2:42 pm

What would Batman Begins' gross be adjusted for inflation, out of curiosity? As it is, the final numbers for Godzilla look like they'll be fine, a bit better perhaps than what we expected going in. The surprise success we had on opening weekend skewed everyone's expectations upwards.

Incidentally, I agree with your assessment re: China (I don't think Godzilla will do nearly as well there as PacRim, because Godzilla lacks a "draw" for Chinese audiences like the Hong Kong setting and Chinese jaeger), but I can't honestly say if I think your Japanese estimate is too high, too low, or right on the money. I literally have no clue how it will do there.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Thu May 29, 2014 2:45 pm

GODZILLA made 2.1 today, and has past its budget of 160 domestically. Its looking on track to be make 175-180 after the weekend.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Pkmatrix » Fri May 30, 2014 5:35 am

Cookson wrote:GODZILLA made 2.1 today, and has past its budget of 160 domestically. Its looking on track to be make 175-180 after the weekend.


$175 - 180 Million is my prediction as well. I see Godzilla crossing the $200 Million finish line within the next three weeks.

EDIT: In fact, I'd say we'll probably hit $200 Million on or about June 15, or about 30 days in theaters. That's behind Captain America (that hit $200 Million on Day 17), but still better than Amazing Spiderman 2 (which, as of Day 27, is only at $188 Million).
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Fri May 30, 2014 9:10 am

GODZILLA took in 1.9 on Thursday. Down 10% from yesterday. So its around 162.5 going into its third weekend.

Weekend predictions:
FRIDAY: 4m
SATURDAY: 7m
SUNDAY: 5m

Domestic total after weekend: 178.5

I'm really hoping it'll hit 200m overseas this weekend. We'll have those numbers Sunday. If it does were looking at 378.5 total.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Sat May 31, 2014 6:36 am

GODZILLA took in a estimated 3.3 on Friday. Suddenly 200m is in serious question with another 65% drop happening. Sounds like its pretty much dead overseas right now as well. We will need huge numbers from China and Japan for this to hit 500m worldwide.

Updated weekend projections:
Fri: 3.3
Sat: 5.5
Sun: 4
Total domestic after weekend: 175-176
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby jrichreturns » Sat May 31, 2014 7:10 am

How can you tell if it's "pretty much dead oversees now" if boxoffice mojo just releases their weekly BO info every Monday?
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Sat May 31, 2014 8:02 am

I get info on it through out the week. Probably add 25-30 OS(week + weekend). So were looking at 366-370 world wide after the weekend. It'll hit 200m overseas next weekend, before it opens in China.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby jrichreturns » Sat May 31, 2014 7:05 pm

That's still okay. If it does that like for the next weekend or at least 15 that's great.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Gyaos1965 » Sat May 31, 2014 9:39 pm

Wow, only 11.3 million this weekend.

It will not even make 200 million.

WOM could not have been positive.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby gojira_fan » Sat May 31, 2014 9:59 pm

I wonder if there is an XMEN forum where members are fussing over box office returns as the latest film is about to have a similar huge drop off with a film that has a much larger budget, I've seen articles that say the budget is closer to $250 million than the $200 box office mojo has listed.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Gman2887 » Sat May 31, 2014 10:25 pm

gojira_fan wrote:I wonder if there is an XMEN forum where members are fussing over box office returns as the latest film is about to have a similar huge drop off with a film that has a much larger budget, I've seen articles that say the budget is closer to $250 million than the $200 box office mojo has listed.


With marketing factored in that's probably not far from the truth. I think Fox is breathing easy. As is Legendary. So should we.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Sun Jun 01, 2014 6:49 am

GODZILLA took in 5.3 on SAT. According to experts, that's the first good day for GODZILLA in awhile. Its getting help as its playing as a double feature with DOFP, and others.

DOFP probably doesn't start making profit till 450 or 500.

Will be getting updated international numbers today! Will post them when I get them.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Pkmatrix » Sun Jun 01, 2014 9:12 am

Gyaos1965 wrote:WOM could not have been positive.


Word of mouth WAS positive and has been repeatedly described as such in the media. Unlike ASM2, the people who liked it REALLY liked it while with ASM2 the people who liked it were generally lukewarm to it. The tone of the positivity is definitely different. Besides, X-Men had even better word of mouth and it dropped nearly as hard as Godzilla did (74% on 2nd Friday) while having cost $40 Million more to produce. And X-Men doesn't even have the excuse Godzilla did!

I'm satisfied with the numbers projected thus far.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Gyaos1965 » Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:19 am

Pkmatrix wrote:
Gyaos1965 wrote:WOM could not have been positive.


Word of mouth WAS positive and has been repeatedly described as such in the media. Unlike ASM2, the people who liked it REALLY liked it while with ASM2 the people who liked it were generally lukewarm to it. The tone of the positivity is definitely different. Besides, X-Men had even better word of mouth and it dropped nearly as hard as Godzilla did (74% on 2nd Friday) while having cost $40 Million more to produce. And X-Men doesn't even have the excuse Godzilla did!

I'm satisfied with the numbers projected thus far.


Haven't the XMEN films proven to be very frontloaded?
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:31 am

GODZILLA is projected to be just shy of 175 this weekend. I'm not too sure if it'll hit 200
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby HannibalBarca » Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:42 am

Pkmatrix wrote:
Gyaos1965 wrote:WOM could not have been positive.


Word of mouth WAS positive and has been repeatedly described as such in the media. Unlike ASM2, the people who liked it REALLY liked it while with ASM2 the people who liked it were generally lukewarm to it. The tone of the positivity is definitely different. Besides, X-Men had even better word of mouth and it dropped nearly as hard as Godzilla did (74% on 2nd Friday) while having cost $40 Million more to produce. And X-Men doesn't even have the excuse Godzilla did!

I'm satisfied with the numbers projected thus far.


Funny you should mention ASM2. Godzilla and ASM2 have Cinemascore and Rottentomatoes audience ratings that are basically identical. So, going by what metrics we have, word of mouth for the two movies hasn't been all that different.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby king_ghidorah » Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:56 am

I've heard mixed word of mouth from casual movie goers. Fans are eating the movie up, and a lot of non-fans are too, but there are also a lot of people who seem to be bored by the movie and complain that it doesn't have enough monster stuff in it. I'd say it's mixed, leaning positive, overall.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Henry88 » Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:00 pm

Also not exactly holding all that well is Godzilla, which earned $12.25 million on its third weekend, a drop of 60% from last weekend. Warner Bros.’ $165m monster mash has earned $174m domestic. This one will get to $200m domestic but not too much more than that. Gareth Edwards’s franchise revival had $329m worldwide going into the weekend, so it will surely end up at least breaking even before its post-theatrical life. The good news is that the film doesn’t open in China and Japan until the middle of next month, so this picture’s worldwide box office story isn’t closed to being written yet. The question is that if the film ends up basically peaking on opening weekend, to what extent should we give credit to director Gareth Edwards (who got a Star Wars spin-off gig off of the film’s debut) as opposed to Warner Bros. marketing? That’s for another day…


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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:45 pm

king_ghidorah wrote:I've heard mixed word of mouth from casual movie goers. Fans are eating the movie up, and a lot of non-fans are too, but there are also a lot of people who seem to be bored by the movie and complain that it doesn't have enough monster stuff in it. I'd say it's mixed, leaning positive, overall.

Overall its been positive, but the people who hated it have been more vocal.

probably cross that profit margin of 380 next weekend.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby goji4ever » Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:22 pm

The people who complain are upset for lack of Godzilla not so much in opposition of Godzilla himself..you could count on their business for the sequel provided it isn't a slow burn like this one.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Sun Jun 01, 2014 3:46 pm

Well Godzilla fell by luckily only 50% overseas for the week and weekend. It just barely crossed 200m OS. So through the weekend were looking at 374WW.

I'm glad it held up better overseas. If it can hit 200 domestically and if it can continue to hold ok overseas, we should be able to hit 500+ depending on how well it does in China and Japan.

Hoping we can be at 400WW after next weekend.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Cookie » Sun Jun 01, 2014 9:47 pm

http://variety.com/2014/film/asia/japan ... 201185049/

After reading that article, I can't help the fact that I'm excited for its release in Japan now. Makes me feel it can make 40-50m there.

TOHO is pulling out all the steps. Hopefully the Japanese people come through.

I'm being optimistic here but if it does 150 with China and Japan, were looking at a possible 550WW.
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Re: Box Office Discussion

Postby Gman2887 » Mon Jun 02, 2014 3:10 am

^But how much of the Japanese gross will Legendary actually see? I seem to recall that Toho will take majority earnings in Japan.
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